Crypto Bargains · Bitcoin cycle
Bitcoin halving countdown
Every 210,000 blocks the reward for mining a Bitcoin block halves. We estimate when block 1,050,000 arrives from recent block times, and set past halvings beside the cycle peaks that followed.
Next halving, estimated
543 days
Around , at block 1,050,000
Block 971,32578,675 to go
- Reward now
- 3.125 BTC
- After the halving
- 1.5625 BTC
Estimate from block times since the last halving. Block data: mempool.space.
Key takeaways
- The next halving is block 1,050,000, estimated for 9 April 2028 at the recent pace of 9.95 minutes a block.
- At that block the reward for each new block drops from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
- Each halving so far was followed by a new all-time high, 371, 526, 548 and 534 days later.
- Restated in today's dollars, the rises from halving day to the following peak were +9,223%, +2,863% and +643%, against +9,338%, +2,936% and +705% unadjusted.
Past halvings and the cycle peaks after them
Every halving so far has been followed by a new all-time high, 371, 526, 548 and 534 days later, an average of 495. Four cycles is a very small sample, and the gap has varied rather than repeated, so we show the history and leave the conclusions to you.
The rises have shrunk each time. From the close on halving day to the peak, Bitcoin gained +9,338%, +2,936%, +705% and +94% in dollars. Restated in today's dollars with US CPI (to August 2026), the rises for the three cycles with US CPI for both dates are +9,223%, +2,863% and +643%, against +9,338%, +2,936% and +705% in plain dollars, because each dollar at the peak bought less than it had on halving day.
- 2012 → December 2013 371
- 2016 → December 2017 526
- 2020 → November 2021 548
- 2024 → October 2025 534
The last bar is the current cycle, using its highest price so far.
| Halving | Reward after | BTC on halving day | Next peak | BTC at peak | Halving to peak | Low after peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2012Block 210,000 | 25 BTC | $12.22 $17.78 today £11.26 today | 4 Dec 2013371 days later | $1,153 $1,658 today £1,003 today | +9,338% +9,223% real | $15214 Jan 2015, −87% from peak |
| 9 Jul 2016Block 420,000 | 12.5 BTC | $648 $902 today £697 today | 17 Dec 2017526 days later | $19,666 $26,722 today £19,899 today | +2,936% +2,863% real | $3,12215 Dec 2018, −84% from peak |
| 11 May 2020Block 630,000 | 6.25 BTC | $8,572 $11,199 today £9,209 today | 10 Nov 2021548 days later | $69,000 $83,158 today £65,301 today | +705% +643% real | $15,47921 Nov 2022, −78% from peak |
| 20 Apr 2024Block 840,000 · current cycle | 3.125 BTC | $64,990 $69,432 today £55,863 today | 6 Oct 2025534 days later, highest so far | $126,080 £98,552 today | +94% | Not confirmed |
Prices are Bitstamp's BTC/USD daily candles, checked on 12 October 2026: the close on halving day, the high on the peak day and the low on the low day, one exchange throughout so the cycles compare like for like. The current cycle's peak is the all-time high CoinGecko reports, $126,080 on 6 October 2025, and its low is left blank until a new cycle confirms it. US CPI has no figure for October 2025 at source, so that peak has no real-dollar value; the pound figure uses UK CPI.
Bitcoin's real returns since 2013, in dollars, pounds and against money printingWhere the cycle stands now
This is the cycle panel from the screener. It places the market in one of five phases using five live readings, the Fear & Greed Index among them, and today it reads Bull Market with 6% confidence. Its next-peak date is our halving estimate plus the average halving-to-peak gap: arithmetic on past cycles, not a forecast.
How the countdown is worked out
Bitcoin has no calendar for halvings, only block heights. The next one happens at block 1,050,000, so the date depends on how quickly blocks arrive. We take the time from the last halving block to the latest block and divide it by the 131,325 blocks mined in between, which gives an average of 9.95 minutes a block. Multiplying the 78,675 blocks still to go by that average gives 9 April 2028.
The network aims for ten minutes and resets the mining difficulty every 2,016 blocks to pull the pace back towards that, but the pace still drifts as mining power comes and goes. At exactly ten minutes a block the halving would land around 12 April 2028, which shows how far a small change in pace moves the date. Block heights come from mempool.space on every five-minute refresh.
| Latest block | 971,325 |
|---|---|
| Last halving | Block 840,000, 20 April 2024 |
| Blocks since | 131,325 |
| Average block time | 9.95 minutes |
| Next halving block | 1,050,000 |
| Blocks to go | 78,675 |
| Estimated date | 9 April 2028 |
| At exactly 10 minutes a block | 12 April 2028 |
What a halving changes
A halving cuts the number of new bitcoins paid to miners for each block. Transaction fees are not affected. The 21 million supply cap comes from this schedule: the reward started at 50 BTC in January 2009 and halves every 210,000 blocks until, after 33 halvings, it rounds down to zero, around the year 2140 if blocks keep to ten minutes.
| From block | Date | Reward | New BTC a day at 10 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 Jan 2009 | 50 BTC | 7,200 |
| 210,000 | 28 Nov 2012 | 25 BTC | 3,600 |
| 420,000 | 9 Jul 2016 | 12.5 BTC | 1,800 |
| 630,000 | 11 May 2020 | 6.25 BTC | 900 |
| 840,000 | 20 Apr 2024 | 3.125 BTC | 450 |
| 1,050,000 | April 2028 (est.) | 1.5625 BTC | 225 |
Why 144 blocks a day
A day has 1,440 minutes, so ten-minute blocks give 144 a day. At the 9.95-minute pace since the last halving it has been nearer 145.
FAQ
Questions about the Bitcoin halving
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
Our estimate today is 9 April 2028, at block 1,050,000. That is 543 days away at the pace blocks have arrived since the last halving, an average of 9.95 minutes each. The block number is fixed by the protocol; the date is an estimate and moves a little every day as the pace changes.
What happened to Bitcoin's price after past halvings?
Each of the first three halvings was followed by a new all-time high and then a long fall. From the halving-day close to the peak, Bitcoin rose +9,338%, +2,936%, +705% and +94%. From each of the first three peaks to the low that followed, it fell 87%, 84% and 78%, and the lows came roughly a year after the peaks.
Those are the only full cycles there are, so they describe what happened rather than set a pattern anyone can rely on. The table on this page has every figure, with the same prices restated in today's dollars and pounds.
What is the Bitcoin cycle, and how does it relate to the crypto market cycle?
People use "the Bitcoin cycle" for the roughly four-year rhythm that has so far run from one halving to a new high, then a fall of 75% or more, a bear-market low and the next halving. The peaks on this page fell in December 2013, December 2017, November 2021 and October 2025, and the lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022.
The wider crypto market cycle has mostly moved with Bitcoin but further in both directions. Smaller coins have tended to rise more in the late part of a run and fall harder afterwards, which is why the screener tracks how far each one sits below its own high.
How many Bitcoin halvings are left?
There have been 4 halvings so far, and 29 remain. The reward is counted in satoshis, a hundred-millionth of a bitcoin, so after the 33rd halving it rounds down to zero, at block 6,930,000. At ten minutes a block that is around 2140, and from then on miners would be paid by transaction fees alone.
Does the halving cause the price to rise?
We don't think four cycles can answer that. The cut in new supply is known years in advance, and the gap from halving to peak has ranged from 371 to 548 days. Plenty else changed over those years, from interest rates to the first US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, so we wouldn't put the peaks down to the halving alone.
What the table does show is that the percentage rise after each halving has been smaller than the one before.
Important information
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Cryptoassets are largely unregulated in the UK, so you are unlikely to have access to the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.