The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
We tested 30 ideas about how to beat inflation against 100 years of US money supply data, from gold and housing to savings, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Topic
Investing Guides Built on 100 Years of Data
Our guides are the two articles from the research written to help you use the data rather than just read it.
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The series overview, published on 13 June 2026, works as a guide to beating inflation and is built around the 6.56% rule, while Part VI, from 11 June, sets out where Bitcoin, Nvidia, the Nasdaq, Berkshire and gold sit on a risk spectrum to 2035.
Both draw on the same 100 years of money supply data from the St. Louis Fed, and both are educational rather than personal advice, so we would use them to frame your own decisions alongside the live prices and calculators further down this page.
- 6.56% Average yearly M2 growth The hurdle rate an investment had to beat to keep its share of the money pool.
- 3.4% Average savings return Savers lost about 95% of their purchasing power over 100 years.
- 1.5x to 6.2x Base-case real returns to 2035 Gold at the low end, Bitcoin at the top, after M2.
Articles on Guides
2 articles from our research on this topic.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for guides
- The 6.56% rule 6.56% a year
- The average annual growth of US M2 over the last century. Assets compounding faster gained ground, slower ones lost it. More about The 6.56% rule
- Total return
- Price growth plus every dividend, rent payment or coupon put back into the investment, as opposed to price alone.
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
FAQ
Questions about guides
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
Where should I start if I am new to this?
With the series overview, because it explains the one idea everything else depends on: that an investment has to grow faster than the money supply, about 6.56% a year over the last century, before it is really making you richer. Once that makes sense, the inflation tracker’s calculators let you try it on your own savings, and Part VI shows how we apply it to today’s assets.
Are these guides financial advice?
No. They describe what the historical data showed and what our models suggest under stated assumptions, which is useful context but cannot account for your own income, timescale or tolerance for risk. If you are making a significant decision, a regulated adviser who knows your circumstances is the right person to check it with.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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