Benchmark
US house prices vs inflation: real prices since 1991
The FHFA US house price index from Jan 1991, restated after US inflation, in pounds and against money printing. It shows how much of the rise was inflation and how long the post-2006 fall lasted in real terms.
- Since Jan 1991, real $ +82.0% 1.7% a year
- Since 2010, $ price +140% before inflation
- Since 2010, after inflation +55.1% US CPI
- From the real peak −1.6% May 2025
Key takeaways
- US house prices are up 140% since 2010 in dollars, but up 55.1% after US inflation.
- Since Jan 1991 they are up 82.0% in real terms, 1.7% a year.
- The real peak was May 2025; prices are 1.6% below it in today’s money.
- 2 real falls of more than 5% since 1991; the deepest was 30.1%.
- Against US money printing (M2) since 2010: down 12.1%.
US house prices after inflation and money printing
Every period in every lens, Jan 1991 to Jul 2026. Real figures are stated in Jul 2026 money.
+55.1%US house prices after US inflation since 20102.7% a year
Up 140% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 55.1%. Against money printing, down 12.1%.
In pounds, up 188%, or up 77.3% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +140%5.4% a year
- £ nominal
- +188%6.6% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +55.1%2.7% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +77.3%3.5% a year
- vs US M2
- −12.1%−0.8% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Jul 2026, 16 years 7 months
- US house prices, Real $ (US CPI)451.6
- $ nominal451.6
- Jul 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Jul 2025 | +2.6% | +0.7% | −0.8% | −2.1% | −2.7% |
| 5 years from Jul 2021 | +29.7% 5.3% a year | +34.0% 6.0% a year | +6.1% 1.2% a year | +4.4% 0.9% a year | +15.3% 2.9% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +63.9% 7.8% a year | +61.5% 7.6% a year | +26.2% 3.6% a year | +22.6% 3.1% a year | +8.4% 1.2% a year |
| 10 years from Jul 2016 | +94.1% 6.9% a year | +91.2% 6.7% a year | +39.9% 3.4% a year | +34.6% 3.0% a year | +7.9% 0.8% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +140% 5.4% a year | +188% 6.6% a year | +55.1% 2.7% a year | +77.3% 3.5% a year | −12.1% −0.8% a year |
| 20 years from Jul 2006 | +101% 3.6% a year | +179% 5.3% a year | +22.7% 1.0% a year | +56.3% 2.3% a year | −40.2% −2.5% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +234% 4.6% a year | +300% 5.4% a year | +68.1% 2.0% a year | +103% 2.7% a year | −33.4% −1.5% a year |
| Since Jan 1991 first month in our data | +352% 4.3% a year | +559% 5.5% a year | +82.0% 1.7% a year | +165% 2.8% a year | −36.1% −1.3% a year |
A $100,000 home over time
What a $100,000 home at each date is worth by Jul 2026, before and after US inflation.
From the December 2009 figure to July 2026, US house prices rose 140%. US consumer prices rose 54.6% over the same months, so the real gain is 55.1%. About 60.6% of the rise an owner sees on paper went on keeping up with inflation.
The FHFA series is an index rather than an average price, so the table shows what a home worth $100,000 at each date would be worth by Jul 2026, before and after US inflation. A $100,000 home from Jan 1991 is worth $451,600 now, or +82.0% in real terms.
Over the past five years the real figure is up 6.1%, a reminder that the long-run figure includes long flat and falling stretches.
| Bought | Worth now, $ | In money of the day | Real change to now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1991 | $451,600 | $182,037 | +82.0% |
| Dec 1995 | $397,360 | $182,664 | +82.7% |
| Dec 2000 | $311,427 | $162,280 | +62.3% |
| Dec 2005 | $207,575 | $122,338 | +22.3% |
| Dec 2010 | $249,806 | $163,969 | +64.0% |
| Dec 2015 | $205,628 | $145,653 | +45.7% |
| Dec 2020 | $146,843 | $114,545 | +14.5% |
| May 2025 real peak | $102,197 | $98,386 | −1.6% |
“In money of the day” is today’s value restated in the dollars of the purchase month, so it compares like with like.
Every real fall since 1991
Falls of more than 5% after US inflation, with the dollar price change over the same months.
After US inflation, US house prices have fallen by more than 5% 2 times since 1991. The deepest fall ran from Nov 2006 to Feb 2012: 30.1% in real terms, while the dollar price changed −21.0%. Real prices took 13 years 5 months to get back to the old high.
| High | Low | Fall after inflation | Price change | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2006 | Feb 2012 | −30.1% | −21.0% | 13 years 5 months |
| May 2022 | Jan 2023 | −5.2% | −2.9% | 1 year 11 months |
Sources and assumptions
Where the figures come from and what they leave out.
- FHFA purchase-only house price index, not seasonally adjusted (January 1991 = 100), via FRED, Jan 1991 to Jul 2026. It is built from repeat sales of homes with mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index is more often quoted, but FRED marks it as needing permission to republish, so it is not shown here.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED). Pound figures convert at the month-end GBP/USD rate and divide by UK CPI.
- Prices only: rent, upkeep, taxes and closing costs are excluded.
US house prices: questions
Worked out from the same monthly data as the tables. Educational information, not financial advice.
Have US house prices beaten inflation?
Over the long run, yes. Since Jan 1991 they are up 82.0% after US inflation. Since 2010 the picture is still positive: up 140% in dollars, up 55.1% once US inflation is taken out. Over the past five years the real change is up 6.1%.
Are US house prices above their real peak?
The highest real price on our monthly data was in May 2025. Restated in Jul 2026 money, prices now are 1.6% below it, even though the dollar price is up 2.2% since then.
How have house prices done against money printing?
Since 2010 the US M2 money supply has grown faster than US house prices, which are down 12.1% against it. M2 counts the dollars held in cash, current and savings accounts and money market funds; when it grows faster than an asset, that asset’s share of all the money in circulation shrinks.
Do these figures include rent or costs?
No. They follow a price index of homes sold. Rent, maintenance, insurance, closing costs and mortgage interest are all outside them, so they are neither a landlord’s total return nor an owner’s full cost.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.