Benchmarks
Benchmarks: house prices and cash savings after inflation
The yardsticks most savers measure against: the average house and cash in the bank, in the UK and the US. Each is measured the same way as the shares, gold and crypto on this site, after inflation and against money printing.
Key takeaways
- UK since 2010, after inflation: houses up 8.4%, cash at Bank Rate down 22.4%
- US over the same months: houses up 55.1%, Treasury bill cash down 17.3%
- Gold up 177% and the S&P 500 up 424% in real pounds, for scale
- Prices only: no rent or owning costs, and cash earns the policy rate
The benchmarks
- Property Since 2010, real £: +8.4% UK house prices vs inflation The HM Land Registry average price since 1968 in today’s pounds, with every real fall.
- Property Since 2010, real $: +55.1% US house prices vs inflation The FHFA purchase-only index since 1991 after US inflation, in dollars and pounds.
- Cash UK since 2010, real £: −22.4% Savings vs inflation The real interest rate on cash by decade, at Bank Rate and Treasury bill rates.
- Gold Since 2010, real £: +177% Gold after inflation Gold since 1960 in every lens and period, in dollars and pounds, against inflation and M2.
Since 2010, in every lens
From the December 2009 close to each series’ latest month. Gold and the S&P 500 are included for scale.
| Benchmark | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK house prices UK HPI · from Apr 1968 | +46.7% 2.3% a year | +76.1% 3.5% a year | −5.1% −0.3% a year | +8.4% 0.5% a year | −46.2% −3.7% a year |
| US house prices FHFA HPI · from Jan 1991 | +140% 5.4% a year | +188% 6.6% a year | +55.1% 2.7% a year | +77.3% 3.5% a year | −12.1% −0.8% a year |
| UK cash (Bank Rate) Bank Rate · from Jan 1975 | +4.0% 0.2% a year | +26.7% 1.4% a year | −33.0% −2.4% a year | −22.4% −1.5% a year | −62.1% −5.6% a year |
| US cash (3-month T-bills) T-bill · from Jan 1934 | +28.3% 1.5% a year | +56.3% 2.7% a year | −17.3% −1.1% a year | −4.2% −0.3% a year | −53.2% −4.4% a year |
| Gold XAU · from Jan 1960 | +270% 8.1% a year | +352% 9.4% a year | +138% 5.3% a year | +177% 6.2% a year | +34.8% 1.8% a year |
| S&P 500 SPX · from Jan 1985 | +601% 12.3% a year | +756% 13.6% a year | +352% 9.4% a year | +424% 10.3% a year | +155% 5.7% a year |
What the benchmarks show
Since the December 2009 close, the average UK house is up 8.4% after UK inflation and cash earning the full Bank Rate is down 22.4%. In the US, house prices are up 55.1% after US inflation and cash at Treasury bill rates down 17.3%.
We work these out exactly as we do for the shares, funds and coins elsewhere on the site, from the same monthly store and against the same inflation series, because a yardstick is only any help if it is held up in the same way as the thing it is compared with. Gold and the S&P 500 sit in the table for scale, and over the same months in real pounds gold is up 177% and the S&P 500 up 424%. Gold has its own page with every lens, and we list it here because plenty of people treat it as a store of value alongside property and cash.
The house figures are prices only, so they leave out rent and the costs of owning. The cash figures assume you earned the policy rate every month, which most savings accounts did not pay, so if anything they are kind to cash. Each benchmark page sets out its assumptions in full.
| 10 years to latest | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK house prices UK HPI · from Apr 1968 | +39.6% 3.4% a year | +37.6% 3.2% a year | +0.6% 0.1% a year | −3.2% −0.3% a year | −22.4% −2.5% a year |
| US house prices FHFA HPI · from Jan 1991 | +94.1% 6.9% a year | +91.2% 6.7% a year | +39.9% 3.4% a year | +34.6% 3.0% a year | +7.9% 0.8% a year |
| UK cash (Bank Rate) Bank Rate · from Jan 1975 | +24.9% 2.2% a year | +22.5% 2.1% a year | −10.0% −1.0% a year | −13.7% −1.5% a year | −30.2% −3.5% a year |
| US cash (3-month T-bills) T-bill · from Jan 1934 | +27.5% 2.5% a year | +25.1% 2.3% a year | −8.1% −0.8% a year | −11.9% −1.3% a year | −28.7% −3.3% a year |
| Gold XAU · from Jan 1960 | +231% 12.7% a year | +206% 11.8% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +115% 8.0% a year | +86.2% 6.4% a year |
| S&P 500 SPX · from Jan 1985 | +267% 13.9% a year | +239% 13.0% a year | +165% 10.2% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +107% 7.5% a year |
Benchmark questions
Educational information, not financial advice.
Have house prices or savings done better after inflation?
Since 2010, house prices. The average UK house is up 8.4% after UK inflation, while cash at the full Bank Rate is down 22.4%.
It has not always been that way round. Cash earned high real rates in the 1980s and 1990s, and UK house prices have had long stretches of real falls, which the UK house price page lists from HM Land Registry figures going back to April 1968. Rent and running costs are left out of the house figures, so they understate what a landlord made and overstate what an owner kept after paying for upkeep.
Why measure house prices and cash against money printing?
The main reason is that inflation only counts what happens to shop prices, and the amount of money has usually grown faster than that. We use the US M2 money supply to measure it, and an asset that rose less than M2 lost its share of all the money in circulation even if it kept pace with inflation. M2 figures from the Federal Reserve only start in January 1959, so this lens cannot go back as far as US inflation, which our data has from 1913.
Why is gold not a separate benchmark page?
Mainly because it already has one, with every period, every lens and its real peaks and falls, and two pages carrying the same figures would only split them, so the benchmarks link to it instead.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.