The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
The Illusion of Wealth, How to Beat Inflation: A 100-year research study tracking dollar dilution and asset class returns since 1926.
Inflation: Understanding the Dilution Hurdle
Standard inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) often understate the true expansion of money.
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Tracking the M2 money supply reveals the actual rate at which currency loses value. Over the last century, the US money supply grew at an average rate of 6.56% per year. To protect your purchasing power, your investment portfolio must compound at a rate that exceeds this monetary growth baseline. CPI measures a changing basket of consumer goods, which is often adjusted to mask the rising cost of living. M2 measures the total amount of currency in circulation. When the supply of money expands, each individual unit buys a smaller fraction of the economic pool. At Outsmart Money, we treat M2 growth as the primary hurdle rate for long-term investing.Traditional savings accounts and government bonds offer yields that fall far short of this 6.56% printing rate. This creates a wealth trap where savers lose purchasing power by design. Outsmart Money helps you construct strategies to beat this silent dilution. By understanding the difference between nominal returns and real purchasing power preservation, you can make smarter capital allocation choices that protect your wealth over decades. 522x 100-Year M2 Expansion
Total expansion of the M2 money supply over the past century.
6.56% Annualised M2 Growth
The average yearly hurdle rate required to preserve purchasing power.
3.40% Average Savings Yield
Historical average yield of cash savings accounts.
Articles on 100-year Analysis
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is M2 money supply expansion a better measure of inflation than CPI?
CPI measures a selected basket of consumer goods, which is subject to adjustment and technology deflation. M2 measures the total currency in circulation. When M2 grows, each existing currency unit holds a smaller fraction of the total economic pool.
What is the historical hurdle rate to preserve purchasing power?
The historical hurdle rate averages 6.56% per year, which is the 100-year growth rate of the M2 money supply. Traditional savings accounts average 3.4%, meaning cash holders lose value by design.
Sources & Citations
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI) Historical Data.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M2 Money Supply (1928-2026).
- Outsmart Money Research: Monetary Growth as the Ultimate Hurdle Rate.