The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
We tested 30 ideas about how to beat inflation against 100 years of US money supply data, from gold and housing to savings, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Topic
Cryptocurrency Against Expanding Fiat Money
In our research, cryptocurrency mostly means Bitcoin, because it is the only crypto asset with enough price history, from In2013Dollars’ records going back to 2010, for us to test against the St. Louis Fed’s money supply data.
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What we were testing was its design: a hard cap of 21 million coins and an issuance rate that halves roughly every four years, set against a dollar supply that has grown 522-fold since 1926.
Three articles cover it. The overview, published on 13 June 2026, sets out why we call Bitcoin the best monetary hedge in recorded history on the data so far, Part V tests its rolling five-year returns and the COVID decoupling, and Part VI models where it could sit in 2030 and 2035 if M2 grows at about 5.5% a year.
- 275,713x Bitcoin M2-adjusted return In 16 years, compared with 1,027x for Berkshire over 60.
- 11 of 12 Five-year windows beating M2 Bitcoin rolling five-year holds since 2010.
- 6.2x Bitcoin real return to 2035 Base case, after allowing for 1.6x growth in M2.
Articles on Cryptocurrency
3 articles from our research on this topic.
Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Crypto vs Stocks: Bitcoin & Tech in the Digital Era
We measure Bitcoin, Nvidia, Apple and the Nasdaq against money supply growth to settle crypto vs stocks, and to see how much faster tech built real wealth.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for cryptocurrency
- Fixed supply 21m BTC
- Bitcoin’s code caps the number of coins at 21 million, which is the scarcity the series compares with expanding fiat money.
- Halving
- The roughly four-yearly cut in new Bitcoin issuance. The most recent covered in the series was in 2024.
- Rolling holding period
- Every possible holding period of a set length, such as each five-year window since 2010, rather than one chosen start date.
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
FAQ
Questions about cryptocurrency
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
Why compare cryptocurrency with the money supply?
Because the argument for Bitcoin is about scarcity, and the most direct test of scarcity we could think of was to set it against a currency that keeps expanding. Using In2013Dollars’ price history and the St. Louis Fed’s M2 series, Bitcoin came out with a 275,713x M2-adjusted return in 16 years, the highest for any asset in the series.
Part VI also notes that, in June 2026, it captured roughly 1% to 2% of global M2, so if it only kept that share, its price floor would keep rising as the dollar supply grows.
How risky is crypto compared with stocks and gold?
A lot riskier over short periods. One-year Bitcoin holds in Part V ranged from very large gains to steep losses, and three-year holds could still lose money if you bought at the wrong moment. It was only at five years that the record settled, with 11 wins out of 12 against M2 since 2010, and the one loss, from the 2018 peak to the 2023 bear market, still made 4.0% a year in dollars.
Important information
Don't invest unless you're prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.
Cryptoassets are largely unregulated in the UK, so you are unlikely to have access to the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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