The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
We tested 30 ideas about how to beat inflation against 100 years of US money supply data, from gold and housing to savings, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Topic
Nvidia: How Tech Shortened the Road to Real Wealth
Nvidia is our clearest example of how much faster wealth can compound in the digital age.
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Since its 1999 listing the shares have grown 4,190-fold, and after taking out the growth in the US money supply that is still an 836x gain in purchasing power, which took Berkshire Hathaway and Walmart 55 to 60 years to get close to.
We cover it in the overview, in Part V on crypto and tech, and in Part VI, where we compare today’s AI boom with the dot-com peak. When we looked at the fundamentals, the gap was large: Cisco traded near 200 times earnings on about $18 billion of revenue in 2000, while Nvidia in mid-2026 had projected FY2027 revenue of around $367 billion and net margins above 60%.
- 836x NVIDIA M2-adjusted since 1999 4,190x nominal, compounding at 36.2% a year.
- 44.5x NVIDIA from January 2019 Against 1.52x growth in M2 over the same stretch.
- $580 NVIDIA 2030 base case A modelled scenario from $207 in June 2026, not a price target.
Articles on Nvidia
3 articles from our research on this topic.
Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Crypto vs Stocks: Bitcoin & Tech in the Digital Era
We measure Bitcoin, Nvidia, Apple and the Nasdaq against money supply growth to settle crypto vs stocks, and to see how much faster tech built real wealth.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for Nvidia
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
- CAGR
- Compound annual growth rate: the steady yearly rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value over the period.
- P/E ratio
- Share price divided by earnings per share. Cisco traded near 200 at the 2000 peak, while Nvidia’s forward P/E in mid-2026 was in the mid-20s.
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
FAQ
Questions about Nvidia
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
How has Nvidia performed against the money supply?
Better than any other share in Part V. From 1999 to 2026 Nvidia grew 4,190x nominally, which comes to 836x once the growth in M2 is taken out, at a compound rate of 36.2% a year. For context, Apple managed 489x from 1985 and Microsoft 474x from 1986. The COVID period shows the same thing at a smaller scale: from January 2019 Nvidia rose 44.5x while M2 grew 1.52x, far too wide a gap for new money alone to explain.
Is Nvidia in a bubble like the dot-com stocks?
We don’t think the comparison holds on the numbers we looked at. Cisco at its 2000 peak was valued above $500 billion on roughly $18 billion of revenue, and many dot-com companies had no earnings at all. Nvidia in mid-2026 trades on a forward P/E in the mid-20s with large real cash flows, so the risk we see is slowing growth rather than a business with nothing underneath it. Part VI goes through why we expect that growth to slow, and what our base case of $580 by 2030 assumes.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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