The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
We tested 30 ideas about how to beat inflation against 100 years of US money supply data, from gold and housing to savings, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Topic
Tech Investing and the Speed of Compounding
Tech investing has mostly shortened the clock.
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Before the digital age, the companies that beat money printing by a thousand times or so, Walmart and Berkshire Hathaway, needed 55 to 60 years to do it. Nvidia reached 836x after M2 in 27 years, and Apple and Microsoft managed about half of Berkshire’s figure in 15 to 20 fewer years, which is why so much of Parts V and VI is about technology. The Nasdaq as a whole returned a more modest 9x after M2 from 1985.
- 836x NVIDIA M2-adjusted since 1999 4,190x nominal, compounding at 36.2% a year.
- 489x Apple M2-adjusted since 1985 Compounding at 22.8% a year over 41 years.
- 9x Nasdaq M2-adjusted since 1985 86x nominal, at 11.5% a year.
Articles on Tech Investing
3 articles from our research on this topic.
Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Crypto vs Stocks: Bitcoin & Tech in the Digital Era
We measure Bitcoin, Nvidia, Apple and the Nasdaq against money supply growth to settle crypto vs stocks, and to see how much faster tech built real wealth.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for tech investing
- CAGR
- Compound annual growth rate: the steady yearly rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value over the period.
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
- P/E ratio
- Share price divided by earnings per share. Cisco traded near 200 at the 2000 peak, while Nvidia’s forward P/E in mid-2026 was in the mid-20s.
- Diminishing returns
- As an asset gets larger, the same dollar gain becomes a smaller percentage. Part VI uses it to explain Bitcoin’s falling CAGR.
FAQ
Questions about tech investing
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
Why have tech stocks compounded faster than older companies?
Part V puts it down to two things. Software has close to zero marginal cost, so a company like Microsoft can sell one more copy almost for free, and the internet let Amazon and Apple reach a global market without building physical infrastructure at the pace an industrial firm would need. Those traits let tech companies reach in about 30 years what conglomerates took 60 to build.
Is the Nasdaq a better long-term bet than Berkshire Hathaway?
Over the last 20 years it has been, according to the series overview, and we describe it as the new default compounder for someone investing today. Part of our reasoning is that the Nasdaq gives broad exposure to fast-growing companies, while Berkshire’s record rested heavily on one capital allocator, and Warren Buffett is now in his nineties. Over the longer history the comparison is less clear-cut: the Nasdaq returned 9x after M2 since 1985, whereas Berkshire reached 1,027x over 60 years.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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