Commodity
Gold price adjusted for inflation and money printing XAU
Gold (front-month future). Gold price per troy ounce, from the front-month COMEX future.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- -3.5%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 14.3%
Gold real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 1960.
+138%Gold after US inflation since 20105.3% a year
Up 270% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 138%. Against money printing, up 34.8%.
In pounds, up 352%, or up 177% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +270%8.1% a year
- £ nominal
- +352%9.4% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +138%5.3% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +177%6.2% a year
- vs US M2
- +34.8%1.8% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- Gold, Real $ (US CPI)$4,195.00
- $ nominal$4,195.00
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +3.4% | +2.7% | –a (see note a) | −0.1% | −1.5% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +136% 18.7% a year | +144% 19.5% a year | +94.9% 14.3% a year | +93.1% 14.1% a year | +114% 16.4% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +184% 16.5% a year | +184% 16.5% a year | +118% 12.1% a year | +115% 11.8% a year | +86.5% 9.6% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +231% 12.7% a year | +206% 11.8% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +115% 8.0% a year | +86.2% 6.4% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +270% 8.1% a year | +352% 9.4% a year | +138% 5.3% a year | +177% 6.2% a year | +34.8% 1.8% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +1,382% 10.6% a year | +1,709% 11.4% a year | +645% 7.8% a year | +815% 8.6% a year | +195% 4.1% a year |
| Since Jan 1960 first month in our data | +11,795% 7.4% a year | –b (see note b) | +940% 3.6% a year | –b (see note b) | +52.0% 0.6% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
- b History starts Jan 1971.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from World Bank Pink Sheet, Yahoo Finance, Jan 1960 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for Gold starts in Jan 1960, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
Gold price history, past year
Daily closes from Kraken. Last refreshed .
Where Gold stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 24.4%
- Above the low
- 6.5%
Gold is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range, 24.4% below the $5,535.55 high it reached on 28 Jan 2026, and only 28% of the past year's closes were lower than where it trades now.
Moving averages
- 50-day$4,313.78 -3.0%
- 200-day$4,371.33 -4.3%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
Gold is 3.0% below its 50-day average and 4.3% below its 200-day average, which puts the trend down on both the short and the long view. The 50-day line last dropped below the 200-day on 28 May 2026, which traders call a death cross.
Trend score
- Trend0
- Momentum26
- RSI score62
- Drawdown54
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 400 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
Gold performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | XAU | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +0.3% | -0.1% | +0.4 pts |
| 1 month | -3.5% | +1.9% | −5.3 pts |
| 3 months | +3.3% | +3.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Year to date | -3.3% | +14.2% | −17.5 pts |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +17.4% | −16.5 pts |
Gold is up 0.9% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 16.5 percentage points.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 49%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 53
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 28 Jan 2026 (+6.7%) and the sharpest fall on 30 Jan 2026 (−10.2%). Of the 366 trading days in that period, 49% closed higher than the day before and 53 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is Gold overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 44
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 12
Gold's RSI of 44.9 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 25 Aug 2026 and last fell below 30 on 28 Sept 2026.
Volatility against other funds, indices and commodities
3rd calmest of 7- Typical daily move
- 0.9%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
Gold's 30-day volatility is 14.3%, which works out at a move of roughly 0.9% on an ordinary day. That makes it the 3rd calmest of the 7 funds, indices and commodities we track, close to the group median of 14.5%. One very large day, such as an earnings release or a sudden sell-off, can lift a 30-day figure for weeks, so we would read the ranking as this month's picture.
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Gold: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has gold beaten inflation since 2010?
Yes. From the December 2009 close to October 2026, gold went up 270% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 55.1% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 138%, or 5.3% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 352%, which comes to up 177% once UK CPI is taken out.
How has gold done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, gold is up 34.8%.
What is gold's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, gold returned 231% in dollars (12.7% a year). After US inflation that is up 139%, 9.1% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 115%.
What is the gold price today?
The last price we have for gold is $4,184.30, down 0.2% on the day, as of 23:45 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Yahoo Finance and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the price has moved −3.5% and over the last year +0.9%.
How has gold performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months gold is up 0.9%, and since the start of the year it is down 3.3%. We put it next to the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up gold, and it moved +17.4% over the same 12 months, a gap of 16.5 points in the S&P 500's favour.
Is gold above its 200-day moving average?
No, it's 4.3% under it at the moment. Gold's last price of $4,184.30 compares with a 200-day average of $4,371.33, and the 50-day average of $4,313.78 is below the 200-day too, which has been the case since 28 May 2026, when the two lines last crossed. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a commodity has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is gold?
Over the past 30 days gold's annualised volatility has been 14.3%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 0.9% move on an ordinary day. It is the 3rd calmest of the 7 funds, indices and commodities we track and the median for the group is 14.5%, so at the moment it is about as jumpy as a typical member of the group. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +6.7% on 28 Jan 2026 and −10.2% on 30 Jan 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.