Commodity
Oil price adjusted for inflation and money printing WTI
Crude oil, WTI (front-month future). West Texas Intermediate crude oil, US dollars per barrel.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- -5.7%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 42.4%
Oil real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 1986.
−19.5%Oil after US inflation since 2010−1.3% a year
Up 24.9% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, down 19.5%. Against money printing, down 54.5%.
In pounds, up 52.6%, or down 6.5% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +24.9%1.3% a year
- £ nominal
- +52.6%2.5% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- −19.5%−1.3% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- −6.5%−0.4% a year
- vs US M2
- −54.5%−4.6% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- Oil, Real $ (US CPI)$93.01
- $ nominal$93.01
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +52.8% | +51.7% | –a (see note a) | +47.7% | +45.6% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +14.2% 2.7% a year | +18.0% 3.4% a year | −5.7% −1.2% a year | −6.6% −1.4% a year | +3.5% 0.7% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +55.3% 6.7% a year | +55.7% 6.7% a year | +19.2% 2.6% a year | +17.7% 2.4% a year | +2.2% 0.3% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +86.8% 6.5% a year | +72.4% 5.6% a year | +34.8% 3.0% a year | +21.5% 2.0% a year | +5.1% 0.5% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +24.9% 1.3% a year | +52.6% 2.5% a year | −19.5% −1.3% a year | −6.5% −0.4% a year | −54.5% −4.6% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +256% 4.8% a year | +335% 5.6% a year | +79.0% 2.2% a year | +120% 3.0% a year | −29.2% −1.3% a year |
| Since Jan 1986 first month in our data | +306% 3.5% a year | +333% 3.7% a year | +32.7% 0.7% a year | +35.9% 0.8% a year | −56.5% −2.0% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from US EIA, Yahoo Finance, Jan 1986 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for Oil starts in Jan 1986, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
Oil (WTI) price history, past year
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance. Last refreshed .
Where Oil stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 16.5%
- Above the low
- 70.6%
Oil sits in the middle part of its range, 70.6% above the $55.27 low from 16 Dec 2025 and 16.5% below the $112.95 high from 7 Apr 2026. About 79% of the year's daily closes were lower than today's price.
Moving averages
- 50-day$89.66 +5.2%
- 200-day$83.58 +12.8%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
Oil is 5.2% above its 50-day average and 12.8% above its 200-day average, so on both the shorter and the longer view the trend we measure is still pointing up. The 50-day line has stayed above the 200-day on every day since 30 Jul 2026, as far back as our data lets us check.
Trend score
- Trend100
- Momentum36
- RSI score87
- Drawdown67
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 252 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
Oil performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | WTI | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +5.4% | -0.1% | +5.5 pts |
| 1 month | -5.7% | +1.9% | −7.6 pts |
| 3 months | +18.5% | +3.1% | +15.3 pts |
| Year to date | +64.2% | +14.2% | +50.1 pts |
| 1 year | +58.5% | +17.4% | +41.1 pts |
Oil is up 58.5% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has beaten that comparison by 41.1 percentage points.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 55%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 116
The biggest one-day rise since 14 Oct 2025 came on 6 Mar 2026 (+12.2%) and the sharpest fall on 8 Apr 2026 (−16.4%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 55% closed higher than the day before and 116 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is Oil overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 18
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 9
Oil's RSI of 54.8 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 15 Sept 2026 and last fell below 30 on 6 Jul 2026.
Volatility against other funds, indices and commodities
1st most volatile of 7- Typical daily move
- 2.7%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
Oil's 30-day volatility is 42.4%, which works out at a move of roughly 2.7% on an ordinary day. That makes it the most volatile of the 7 funds, indices and commodities we track, well above the group median of 14.7%. We use the same 30-day window for every asset so the ranking is like for like, though it shifts as big days drop out of the window.
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Oil: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has oil beaten inflation since 2010?
No. Between the December 2009 close and October 2026, oil went up 24.9% in dollars while US consumer prices rose 55.1%, so in today's money it is down 19.5%. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 52.6%, which comes to down 6.5% once UK CPI is taken out.
How has oil done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, oil is down 54.5%. In other words the price rose more slowly than the amount of money in circulation.
What is oil's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, oil returned 86.8% in dollars (6.5% a year). After US inflation that is up 34.8%, 3.0% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 21.5%.
What is the oil price today?
The last price we have for oil is $94.30, up 0.6% on the day, as of 19:20 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Yahoo Finance and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the price has moved −5.7% and over the last year +58.5%.
How has oil performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months oil is up 58.5%, and since the start of the year it is up 64.2%. We put it next to the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up oil, and it moved +17.4% over the same 12 months, a gap of 41.1 points in oil's favour.
Is oil above its 200-day moving average?
It is, and comfortably. Oil's last price of $94.30 is 12.8% above its 200-day average of $83.58, and the 50-day average of $89.66 is above the 200-day as well, which has been true on every day since 30 Jul 2026, as far back as our data goes. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a commodity has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is oil?
Over the past 30 days oil's annualised volatility has been 42.4%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 2.7% move on an ordinary day. It is the most volatile of the 7 funds, indices and commodities we track and the median for the group is 14.7%, so at the moment it is one of the jumpier ones. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +12.2% on 6 Mar 2026 and −16.4% on 8 Apr 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.