ETF · Index fund
SPY real return vs inflation and money printing
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. The largest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500. Its price moves almost exactly with the index, at about one tenth of the index level.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- +1.9%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 9.8%
SPY real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 1993.
+350%SPY after US inflation since 20109.4% a year
Up 599% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 350%. Against money printing, up 155%.
In pounds, up 753%, or up 423% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +599%12.2% a year
- £ nominal
- +753%13.6% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +350%9.4% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +423%10.3% a year
- vs US M2
- +155%5.7% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- SPY, Real $ (US CPI)$778.60
- $ nominal$778.60
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +14.1% | +13.3% | –a (see note a) | +10.3% | +8.8% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +69.5% 11.1% a year | +75.3% 11.9% a year | +40.0% 7.0% a year | +38.7% 6.8% a year | +53.7% 9.0% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +142% 13.8% a year | +143% 13.8% a year | +85.6% 9.5% a year | +83.3% 9.3% a year | +59.1% 7.0% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +266% 13.9% a year | +238% 13.0% a year | +164% 10.2% a year | +138% 9.1% a year | +106% 7.5% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +599% 12.2% a year | +753% 13.6% a year | +350% 9.4% a year | +423% 10.3% a year | +155% 5.7% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +430% 6.4% a year | +547% 7.2% a year | +166% 3.7% a year | +227% 4.5% a year | +5.3% 0.2% a year |
| Since Jan 1993 first month in our data | +1,672% 8.9% a year | +1,889% 9.3% a year | +654% 6.2% a year | +770% 6.6% a year | +160% 2.9% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Jan 1993 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for SPY starts in Jan 1993, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
S&P 500 ETF price history, past year
Daily closes from Nasdaq. Last refreshed .
Where SPY stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 0.1%
- Above the low
- 23.2%
At $778.46, SPY is higher than 99% of its daily closes over the past year and only 0.1% short of the $779.09 high it set on 6 Oct 2026.
Moving averages
- 50-day$768.61 +1.3%
- 200-day$723.83 +7.5%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
SPY is 1.3% above its 50-day average and 7.5% above its 200-day average, so on both the shorter and the longer view the trend we measure is still pointing up. The 50-day line has stayed above the 200-day on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data lets us check.
Trend score
- Trend100
- Momentum70
- RSI score99
- Drawdown100
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 277 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
SPY performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | SPY | QQQ | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -0.1% | -2.0% | +1.9 pts |
| 1 month | +1.9% | +4.1% | −2.3 pts |
| 3 months | +3.1% | +3.7% | −0.6 pts |
| Year to date | +14.2% | +21.2% | −7.0 pts |
| 1 year | +17.4% | +23.6% | −6.2 pts |
SPY is up 17.4% over the past year on price alone, against +23.6% for the Nasdaq-100 (through the QQQ fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 6.2 percentage points. Dividends are not included, so the total return for holders would be a little higher.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 53%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 4
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 31 Mar 2026 (+2.9%) and the sharpest fall on 5 Jun 2026 (−2.6%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 53% closed higher than the day before and 4 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is SPY overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 21
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 3
SPY's RSI of 59.6 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 2 Jun 2026 and last fell below 30 on 30 Mar 2026.
Volatility against other funds and indices
2nd calmest of 6- Typical daily move
- 0.6%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
SPY's 30-day volatility is 9.8%, which works out at a move of roughly 0.6% on an ordinary day. That makes it the 2nd calmest of the 6 funds and indices we track, below the group median of 14.6%.
SPY compared with similar assets
| Asset | Price | Today | 1 month | 1 year | RSI | Trend score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | $778.46 | +0.05% | +1.9% | +17.4% | 60 | 89 Uptrend |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | $744.30 | +0.10% | +4.1% | +23.6% | 55 | 90 Uptrend |
| GLDGold ETF | $381.54 | -0.03% | -4.3% | +0.9% | 43 | 30 Downtrend |
| AAPLApple | $341.10 | -0.05% | +2.7% | +37.7% | 60 | 86 Uptrend |
| MSFTMicrosoft | $543.00 | -0.08% | +9.6% | +5.6% | 71 | 89 Uptrend |
Over the past year Apple has done best in this group (+37.7%) and Gold ETF has been the weakest (+0.9%). SPY comes 3rd of 5, 20.3 percentage points behind Apple.
About S&P 500 ETF
SPY started trading in January 1993 and is usually described as the first US-listed exchange-traded fund. It holds every S&P 500 company in proportion to its index weight and passes their dividends on to holders four times a year.
- Ticker
- SPY
- Type
- ETF
- Sector
- Index fund
- Priced in
- USD
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SPY: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has SPY beaten inflation since 2010?
Yes. From the December 2009 close to October 2026, SPY went up 599% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 55.1% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 350%, or 9.4% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 753%, which comes to up 423% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has SPY done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, SPY is up 155%.
What is SPY's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, SPY returned 266% in dollars (13.9% a year). After US inflation that is up 164%, 10.2% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 138%.
What is the SPY price today?
The last price we have for SPY is $778.46, up 0.1% on the day, as of 23:54 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Nasdaq and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the fund has moved +1.9% and over the last year +17.4%.
What does SPY invest in?
The largest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500. Its price moves almost exactly with the index, at about one tenth of the index level. SPY started trading in January 1993 and is usually described as the first US-listed exchange-traded fund. It holds every S&P 500 company in proportion to its index weight and passes their dividends on to holders four times a year.
How has SPY performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months SPY is up 17.4%, and since the start of the year it is up 14.2%. We put it next to the Nasdaq-100 (through the QQQ fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up SPY, and it moved +23.6% over the same 12 months, a gap of 6.2 points in the Nasdaq-100's favour. The figures are price changes only, so any dividends or interest the fund paid out come on top.
Is SPY above its 200-day moving average?
It is. SPY's last price of $778.46 is 7.5% above its 200-day average of $723.83, and the 50-day average of $768.61 is above the 200-day as well, which has been true on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data goes. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a fund has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is SPY compared with other funds?
Over the past 30 days SPY's annualised volatility has been 9.8%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 0.6% move on an ordinary day. It is the 2nd calmest of the 6 funds and indices we track and the median for the group is 14.6%, so at the moment it is calmer than most of them. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +2.9% on 31 Mar 2026 and −2.6% on 5 Jun 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
S&P 500 ETF: what the numbers say
Claude Haiku ·SPY is trading at $777.73, down 0.05% today with the US market open. The fund sits 0.2% below its 52-week closing high of $779.09, set on 6 October, and 23.1% above its closing low of $631.97, recorded on 30 March. It remains above both its 50-day average of $768.6 and its 200-day average of $723.8.
Read the full summary Show less
The trend score of 89 carries the Uptrend label, with the trend and drawdown components both at 100 and momentum at 70. The price has risen 1.76% over the past 30 days, and annualised volatility over the same window is 9.8%. The 14-day RSI stands at 58.9, and the fund is up 17.3% over the year. Among related names today, the Nasdaq-100 ETF fell 0.5% and the Gold ETF slipped 0.16%, whereas Microsoft rose 0.83% and Apple 0.37%.
Written by AI from this site's live data and checked figure by figure before publishing. Educational only, not financial advice.