Index
S&P 500 real return vs inflation and money printing SPX
S&P 500. The benchmark index of 500 large US companies, weighted by market value.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- +2.0%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 9.9%
S&P 500 real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 1985.
+352%S&P 500 after US inflation since 20109.4% a year
Up 601% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 352%. Against money printing, up 155%.
In pounds, up 756%, or up 424% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +601%12.3% a year
- £ nominal
- +756%13.6% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +352%9.4% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +424%10.3% a year
- vs US M2
- +155%5.7% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- S&P 500, Real $ (US CPI)7,812
- $ nominal7,812
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +14.2% | +13.4% | –a (see note a) | +10.4% | +8.9% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +69.6% 11.1% a year | +75.4% 11.9% a year | +40.1% 7.0% a year | +38.8% 6.8% a year | +53.8% 9.0% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +142% 13.8% a year | +142% 13.8% a year | +85.5% 9.5% a year | +83.2% 9.3% a year | +59.0% 7.0% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +267% 13.9% a year | +239% 13.0% a year | +165% 10.2% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +107% 7.5% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +601% 12.3% a year | +756% 13.6% a year | +352% 9.4% a year | +424% 10.3% a year | +155% 5.7% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +432% 6.4% a year | +549% 7.2% a year | +167% 3.7% a year | +228% 4.5% a year | +5.7% 0.2% a year |
| Since Jan 1985 first month in our data | +4,249% 9.5% a year | +3,615% 9.0% a year | +1,270% 6.5% a year | +1,006% 5.9% a year | +334% 3.6% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, Jan 1985 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for S&P 500 starts in Jan 1985, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
S&P 500 price history, past year
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance. Last refreshed .
Where S&P 500 stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 0.2%
- Above the low
- 23.1%
At 7,807.07, the S&P 500 is higher than 99% of its daily closes over the past year and only 0.2% short of the 7,818.93 high it set on 6 Oct 2026.
Moving averages
- 50-day7,707.40 +1.3%
- 200-day7,259.49 +7.5%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
The S&P 500 is 1.3% above its 50-day average and 7.5% above its 200-day average, so on both the shorter and the longer view the trend we measure is still pointing up. The 50-day line has stayed above the 200-day on every day since 30 Jul 2026, as far back as our data lets us check.
Trend score
- Trend100
- Momentum72
- RSI score98
- Drawdown100
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 252 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
S&P 500 performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | SPX | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -0.2% | -0.1% | −0.1 pts |
| 1 month | +2.0% | +1.9% | +0.1 pts |
| 3 months | +3.1% | +3.1% | −0.0 pts |
| Year to date | +14.0% | +14.2% | −0.1 pts |
| 1 year | +17.3% | +17.4% | −0.1 pts |
The S&P 500 is up 17.3% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 0.1 percentage points.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 53%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 4
The biggest one-day rise since 14 Oct 2025 came on 31 Mar 2026 (+2.9%) and the sharpest fall on 5 Jun 2026 (−2.6%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 53% closed higher than the day before and 4 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is S&P 500 overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 22
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 3
The S&P 500's RSI of 59.4 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 2 Jun 2026 and last fell below 30 on 30 Mar 2026.
Volatility against other funds and indices
3rd calmest of 7- Typical daily move
- 0.6%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
The S&P 500's 30-day volatility is 9.9%, which works out at a move of roughly 0.6% on an ordinary day. That makes it the 3rd calmest of the 7 funds and indices we track, below the group median of 14.5%. We use the same 30-day window for every asset so the ranking is like for like, though it shifts as big days drop out of the window.
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S&P 500: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has the S&P 500 beaten inflation since 2010?
Yes. From the December 2009 close to October 2026, the S&P 500 went up 601% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 55.1% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 352%, or 9.4% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 756%, which comes to up 424% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has the S&P 500 done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, the S&P 500 is up 155%.
What is the S&P 500's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, the S&P 500 returned 267% in dollars (13.9% a year). After US inflation that is up 165%, 10.2% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 139%.
What is the S&P 500 at today?
The last price we have for the S&P 500 is 7,807.07, down 0.0% on the day, as of 20:55 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Yahoo Finance and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the index has moved +2.0% and over the last year +17.3%.
How has the S&P 500 performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months the S&P 500 is up 17.3%, and since the start of the year it is up 14.0%. We put it next to the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up the S&P 500, and it moved +17.4% over the same 12 months, a gap of 0.1 points in the S&P 500's favour. These are index levels, so they leave out the dividends a fund tracking the index would pay.
Is the S&P 500 overbought?
No, or at least not on the 14-day RSI, which reads 59.4 at the moment. We'd only start calling the S&P 500 overbought above 70 and it hasn't been there since 2 Jun 2026, while the last time it went the other way and dropped below 30 was 30 Mar 2026. RSI looks back over 14 sessions and asks how much of the movement was up and how much was down, so a reading in the 50s or 60s mostly tells us the past few weeks have been fairly even. The S&P 500 spent 22 sessions at 70 or above in the past year, which is one reason we don't treat a high reading as a cue to sell: in a strong run it can stay there for weeks.
Is the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average?
It is. The S&P 500's last price of 7,807.07 is 7.5% above its 200-day average of 7,259.49, and the 50-day average of 7,707.40 is above the 200-day as well, which has been true on every day since 30 Jul 2026, as far back as our data goes. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether an index has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.