Stock · Retail
Costco real return vs inflation and money printing COST
Costco Wholesale Corp. Membership warehouse retailer that earns much of its profit from annual membership fees.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- +5.4%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 15.7%
Costco real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jul 1986.
+932%Costco after US inflation since 201014.9% a year
Up 1,500% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 932%. Against money printing, up 483%.
In pounds, up 1,855%, or up 1,098% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +1,500%17.9% a year
- £ nominal
- +1,855%19.3% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +932%14.9% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +1,098%15.9% a year
- vs US M2
- +483%11.0% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- Costco, Real $ (US CPI)$946.90
- $ nominal$946.90
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +3.9% | +3.2% | –a (see note a) | +0.4% | −1.0% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +92.6% 14.0% a year | +99.2% 14.8% a year | +59.1% 9.7% a year | +57.6% 9.5% a year | +74.7% 11.8% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +222% 18.7% a year | +223% 18.7% a year | +147% 14.2% a year | +144% 13.9% a year | +112% 11.6% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +540% 20.4% a year | +491% 19.4% a year | +362% 16.5% a year | +316% 15.3% a year | +260% 13.7% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +1,500% 17.9% a year | +1,855% 19.3% a year | +932% 14.9% a year | +1,098% 15.9% a year | +483% 11.0% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +1,975% 12.0% a year | +2,433% 12.8% a year | +943% 9.1% a year | +1,180% 10.0% a year | +312% 5.4% a year |
| Since Jul 1986 first month in our data | +9,310% 12.0% a year | +10,506% 12.3% a year | +2,976% 8.9% a year | +3,275% 9.1% a year | +959% 6.0% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Jul 1986 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for Costco starts in Jul 1986, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
Costco price history, past year
Daily closes from Nasdaq. Last refreshed .
Where Costco stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 12.9%
- Above the low
- 12.2%
Costco sits in the middle part of its range, 12.2% above the $850.00 low from 22 Dec 2025 and 12.9% below the $1,094.32 high from 19 May 2026. About 53% of the year's daily closes were lower than today's price.
Moving averages
- 50-day$931.57 +2.4%
- 200-day$964.40 -1.1%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
Costco has climbed back 2.4% above its 50-day average, although it is still 1.1% under the 200-day, so the longer trend has not turned up yet. The 50-day line last dropped below the 200-day on 3 Aug 2026, which traders call a death cross.
Trend score
- Trend30
- Momentum71
- RSI score92
- Drawdown74
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 277 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
Costco performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | COST | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +1.9% | -0.1% | +2.0 pts |
| 1 month | +5.4% | +1.9% | +3.5 pts |
| 3 months | +4.0% | +3.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Year to date | +10.6% | +14.2% | −3.6 pts |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +17.4% | −15.5 pts |
Costco is up 1.9% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 15.5 percentage points. Dividends are not included, so the total return for holders would be a little higher.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 49%
- Moves of 3% or more
- 6
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 8 Jan 2026 (+3.7%) and the sharpest fall on 9 Jul 2026 (−4.2%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 49% closed higher than the day before and 6 moved by 3% or more in one direction or the other.
Is Costco overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Firm- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 12
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 1
At 63.1, Costco's RSI is in the upper half of the usual 30 to 70 band, so buyers have had the better of the past few weeks without the reading reaching the level we'd call stretched. Over the past year it has spent 12 sessions at 70 or above, most recently on 19 May 2026.
Volatility against other US shares
3rd calmest of 27- Typical daily move
- 1.0%
- Calmest in group
- BRK.B 10.8%
Costco's 30-day volatility is 15.7%, which works out at a move of roughly 1.0% on an ordinary day. That makes it the 3rd calmest of the 27 US shares we track, below the group median of 23.3%. One very large day, such as an earnings release or a sudden sell-off, can lift a 30-day figure for weeks, so we would read the ranking as this month's picture.
Costco compared with similar assets
| Asset | Price | Today | 1 month | 1 year | RSI | Trend score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSTCostco | $953.50 | -0.12% | +5.4% | +1.9% | 63 | 60 Sideways |
| WMTWalmart | $111.89 | -0.34% | +4.4% | +9.6% | 60 | 57 Sideways |
| AMZNAmazon | $258.75 | +0.07% | +0.8% | +17.6% | 55 | 80 Uptrend |
| PGProcter & Gamble | $152.75 | -0.20% | +5.1% | +3.6% | 64 | 76 Uptrend |
Over the past year Amazon has done best in this group (+17.6%) and Costco has been the weakest (+1.9%). Costco comes 4th of 4, 15.7 percentage points behind Amazon.
About Costco
Costco opened its first warehouse in 1983. Membership fees are a small part of its revenue but a large part of its profit, which is why investors watch renewal rates closely.
- Ticker
- COST
- Type
- Stock
- Sector
- Retail
- Priced in
- USD
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Costco: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has Costco beaten inflation since 2010?
Yes. From the December 2009 close to October 2026, Costco went up 1,500% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 55.1% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 932%, or 14.9% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 1,855%, which comes to up 1,098% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has Costco done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, Costco is up 483%.
What is Costco's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, Costco returned 540% in dollars (20.4% a year). After US inflation that is up 362%, 16.5% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 316%.
What is the Costco share price today?
The last price we have for Costco is $953.50, down 0.1% on the day, as of 23:55 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Nasdaq and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the shares have moved +5.4% and over the last year +1.9%.
Is Costco stock overbought right now?
No, or at least not on the 14-day RSI, which reads 63.1 at the moment. We'd only start calling Costco overbought above 70 and it hasn't been there since 19 May 2026, while the last time it went the other way and dropped below 30 was 22 Dec 2025. RSI looks back over 14 sessions and asks how much of the movement was up and how much was down, so a reading in the 50s or 60s mostly tells us the past few weeks have been tilted towards buyers without getting extreme. Costco spent 12 sessions at 70 or above in the past year, which is one reason we don't treat a high reading as a cue to sell: in a strong run it can stay there for weeks.
How far is Costco from its 52-week high?
About 12.9%, so it would need to rise 14.8% to get back there. The highest close in the past year was $1,094.32 on 19 May 2026 and the lowest was $850.00 on 22 Dec 2025, which puts today's price 42% of the way up that range. We work this out from daily closing prices rather than the intraday highs and lows an exchange reports, so our high can be a little lower than the one you'll see quoted elsewhere.
Is Costco above its 200-day moving average?
No, it's 1.1% under it at the moment. Costco's last price of $953.50 compares with a 200-day average of $964.40, and the 50-day average of $931.57 is below the 200-day too, which has been the case since 3 Aug 2026, when the two lines last crossed. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a share has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is Costco stock?
Over the past 30 days Costco's annualised volatility has been 15.7%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 1.0% move on an ordinary day. It is the 3rd calmest of the 27 US shares we track and the median for the group is 23.3%, so at the moment it is calmer than most of them. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +3.7% on 8 Jan 2026 and −4.2% on 9 Jul 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
Costco: what the numbers say
Claude Haiku ·Costco shares closed at $957.89 today, down 0.16%. The stock sits 12.5% below its 52-week closing high of $1,094.32, reached on 19 May 2026, and 12.7% above its closing low of $850.00, recorded on 22 December 2025. The price is above the 50-day average of $931.65 but below the 200-day average of $964.42.
Read the full summary Show less
The trend score is 60, which places the shares in the Sideways category, with the trend component at 30 and momentum at 74. The 14-day RSI stands at 66. Over 30 days the shares have gained 5.87%, and across the past year they are up 2.39%. Annualised volatility over the last 30 days is 15.6%. Among related names, Walmart rose 0.1% today, Amazon slipped 0.07% and Procter & Gamble eased 0.02%.
Written by AI from this site's live data and checked figure by figure before publishing. Educational only, not financial advice.