Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Topic
M2-Adjusted Returns: Measuring Real Gains
Every table in our research uses the same adjustment.
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We divide an asset’s growth by the growth in US M2 over the same period, using the St. Louis Fed’s M2SL series, so a share that grew 10x while M2 grew 2x scores 5x. In Part VI we applied it to our 2035 base case, where M2 grows about 1.6x, and it changes the ranking a lot: Bitcoin comes out at 6.2x in real terms and gold at only 1.5x.
- 1.5x to 6.2x Base-case real returns to 2035 Gold at the low end, Bitcoin at the top, after M2.
- ~$37tn M2 base case for 2035 A scenario at 5.5% a year from $22.8 trillion in June 2026.
- 6.2x Bitcoin real return to 2035 Base case, after allowing for 1.6x growth in M2.
Articles on M2 Adjusted
1 article from our research on this topic.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for M2 adjusted
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
- M2 money supply
- The Federal Reserve’s measure of cash, current accounts and easily accessible savings in the US. We use it to see how quickly new money is being created.
- Nominal vs real
- Nominal figures are the dollar amounts you see. Real figures adjust them for something else, which in this research is the growth in M2.
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
FAQ
Questions about M2 adjusted
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
How do you calculate an M2-adjusted return?
Divide the asset’s growth multiple by M2’s growth multiple over the same years. If a share grew 10x while M2 grew 2x, the M2-adjusted return is 5x. A result of exactly 1.0 means the asset kept its share of the money pool, and anything under 1.0 means it lost share even if the price went up.
Why not just adjust for CPI?
CPI tracks prices of goods and services, which is useful for living costs but says little about whether an asset has kept its share of all the money in the system. Over the past century M2 grew much faster than most safe yields, and measuring against it showed us that gold, housing and savings all lost ground even when their CPI-adjusted figures looked respectable.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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