Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Topic
Bitcoin Forecast: A Base-Case Scenario for 2030 and 2035
We based the Bitcoin scenario in Part VI on the money supply rather than on chart patterns, using the St. Louis Fed’s M2 series as the starting point.
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At the time of writing in June 2026, Bitcoin captured roughly 1% to 2% of global M2, so if it did no more than hold that share while US M2 grew from $22.8 trillion to about $28.2 trillion by 2030, its price floor would rise along with it.
In the base case that takes Bitcoin from $65,000 in 2026 to about $350,000 in 2030 and $650,000 in 2035.
- $350,000 Bitcoin 2030 base case A modelled scenario from $65,000 in June 2026, not a price target.
- 6.2x Bitcoin real return to 2035 Base case, after allowing for 1.6x growth in M2.
- 11 of 12 Five-year windows beating M2 Bitcoin rolling five-year holds since 2010.
Articles on Bitcoin Forecast
1 article from our research on this topic.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for Bitcoin forecast
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
- Fixed supply 21m BTC
- Bitcoin’s code caps the number of coins at 21 million, which is the scarcity the series compares with expanding fiat money.
- Share of global M2 1% to 2%
- In June 2026 we put Bitcoin at roughly 1% to 2% of global M2, and the Part VI model starts by asking what its price would be if it only held that share while US M2 grew from $22.8 trillion to about $28.2 trillion by 2030.
- Stock-to-flow
- Existing supply divided by new supply each year. The series overview put Bitcoin at about 120 after the 2024 halving, against roughly 62 for gold.
FAQ
Questions about Bitcoin forecast
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
What does the Part VI scenario show for Bitcoin in 2030?
About $350,000 in the base-case scenario, rising to $650,000 by 2035, modelled from $65,000 in June 2026. It is an illustration under stated assumptions, not a price target. The model assumes 5.5% annual growth in M2 and a gradual decline in Bitcoin’s growth rate as it gets larger. Even in the bear case, with 4% M2 growth, our model has Bitcoin staying ahead of the money supply, though by a much thinner margin.
Why do you expect Bitcoin’s returns to slow?
Because of the maths of size. Going from $100 to $10,000 was a 10,000% gain, while the move from $65,000 to $350,000 in our model is about 438%, even though it adds far more dollars. Bitcoin’s rolling CAGR has trended down for years, and we read that as the asset maturing rather than failing.
Important information
Don't invest unless you're prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.
Cryptoassets are largely unregulated in the UK, so you are unlikely to have access to the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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