Comparison
Stocks vs gold vs Bitcoin: real returns since 2013
The S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin over the same months, after US and UK inflation and against money printing. Bitcoin’s monthly history in our data starts in October 2013, so that is where the comparison begins.
- S&P 500 since Oct 2013, real $ +210% 9.1% a year
- Gold since Oct 2013, real $ +122% 6.3% a year
- Bitcoin since Oct 2013, real $ +28,424% 54.5% a year
- US prices since Oct 2013 +43.4% US CPI
Key takeaways
- After US inflation since Oct 2013: Bitcoin +28,424% (54.5% a year), the S&P 500 +210% (9.1% a year) and gold +122% (6.3% a year).
- Deepest real falls inside the window: Bitcoin 77.8%, the S&P 500 29.3%, gold 26.3%.
- In the 12 full calendar years, Bitcoin had the best real return in 8, the S&P 500 in 1 and gold in 3.
- Over the past five years the order changes: gold +94.9%, the S&P 500 +40.1% and Bitcoin +12.3% after US inflation.
- Monthly real returns of the S&P 500 and gold barely moved together (correlation 0.07).
Side by side, Oct 2013 to Oct 2026
Every lens over the months all of them have. The highlighted column follows the lens you choose below.
| Asset | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPX | +345% 12.2% a year | +440% 13.9% a year | +210% 9.1% a year | +273% 10.6% a year | +109% 5.8% a year |
| Gold XAU | +219% 9.3% a year | +287% 11.0% a year | +122% 6.3% a year | +167% 7.8% a year | +50.0% 3.2% a year |
| Bitcoin BTC | +40,812% 58.8% a year | +49,573% 61.2% a year | +28,424% 54.5% a year | +34,180% 56.7% a year | +19,160% 49.9% a year |
Growth of 100 in the lens you choose
Each line starts at 100. Switch the lens to see the same holdings in pounds, after inflation or against money printing.
- S&P 500310.1
- Gold222.1
- Bitcoin28,520
- Oct 2026
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the tables below.
Every period
Shorter windows first. All five lenses are in the page; the one you choose is shown.
Every period in US dollars, not adjusted
| Period | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +14.2% 14.2% a year | +3.4% 3.4% a year | −24.0% −24.0% a year |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +69.6% 11.1% a year | +136% 18.7% a year | +36.0% 6.3% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +142% 13.8% a year | +184% 16.5% a year | +1,058% 43.1% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +267% 13.9% a year | +231% 12.7% a year | +12,204% 61.8% a year |
| Since Oct 2013 from Oct 2013 | +345% 12.2% a year | +219% 9.3% a year | +40,812% 58.8% a year |
Every period in pounds sterling, not adjusted
| Period | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +13.4% 13.4% a year | +2.7% 2.7% a year | −24.5% −24.5% a year |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +75.4% 11.9% a year | +144% 19.5% a year | +40.6% 7.1% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +142% 13.8% a year | +184% 16.5% a year | +1,061% 43.2% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +239% 13.0% a year | +206% 11.8% a year | +11,254% 60.5% a year |
| Since Oct 2013 from Oct 2013 | +440% 13.9% a year | +287% 11.0% a year | +49,573% 61.2% a year |
Every period in US dollars after US inflation (CPI)
| Period | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | –a (see note a) | –a (see note a) | –a (see note a) |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +40.1% 7.0% a year | +94.9% 14.3% a year | +12.3% 2.3% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +85.5% 9.5% a year | +118% 12.1% a year | +789% 37.7% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +165% 10.2% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +8,779% 56.6% a year |
| Since Oct 2013 from Oct 2013 | +210% 9.1% a year | +122% 6.3% a year | +28,424% 54.5% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
Every period in pounds after UK inflation (CPI)
| Period | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +10.4% 10.4% a year | −0.1% −0.1% a year | −26.5% −26.5% a year |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +38.8% 6.8% a year | +93.1% 14.1% a year | +11.2% 2.1% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +83.2% 9.3% a year | +115% 11.8% a year | +777% 37.4% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +139% 9.1% a year | +115% 8.0% a year | +7,902% 55.0% a year |
| Since Oct 2013 from Oct 2013 | +273% 10.6% a year | +167% 7.8% a year | +34,180% 56.7% a year |
Every period in US dollars measured against the growth of the US M2 money supply
| Period | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +8.9% 8.9% a year | −1.5% −1.5% a year | −27.5% −27.5% a year |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +53.8% 9.0% a year | +114% 16.4% a year | +23.3% 4.3% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +59.0% 7.0% a year | +86.5% 9.6% a year | +662% 34.6% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +107% 7.5% a year | +86.2% 6.4% a year | +6,818% 52.8% a year |
| Since Oct 2013 from Oct 2013 | +109% 5.8% a year | +50.0% 3.2% a year | +19,160% 49.9% a year |
Year by year after US inflation
Each calendar year from the December close to the next, in today’s dollars.
From the October 2013 close to October 2026, and after US inflation of 43.4%, the three finished in this order: Bitcoin +28,424% (54.5% a year), the S&P 500 +210% (9.1% a year) and gold +122% (6.3% a year). In money terms, $1,000 of each, restated in today’s dollars, became about $285,235, $3,101 and $2,221.
The average hides a rough ride. Bitcoin led in 8 of the 12 full years, yet the three worst single years in the table also belong to Bitcoin: 2018 (Bitcoin −73.5%), 2022 (Bitcoin −66.4%), 2014 (Bitcoin −53.2%). All three fell in real terms in 2 years.
Month to month, the three mostly went their own way. Over 154 months the correlation of real monthly returns was 0.07 for the S&P 500 and gold, 0.20 for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and −0.08 for Bitcoin and gold. A figure near zero means a good month for one said little about the other.
| Year | S&P 500 | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 to date | +10.4% | −5.8% | −8.0% |
| 2025 | +13.4% | +58.5% | −8.8% |
| 2024 | +19.8% | +27.0% | +115% |
| 2023 | +20.2% | +9.0% | +147% |
| 2022 | −24.3% | −5.6% | −66.4% |
| 2021 | +18.6% | −10.0% | +49.3% |
| 2020 | +14.7% | +23.9% | +297% |
| 2019 | +26.0% | +15.7% | +90.0% |
| 2018 | −8.0% | −3.0% | −73.5% |
| 2017 | +17.0% | +7.0% | +1,274% |
| 2016 | +7.3% | +5.3% | +126% |
| 2015 | −1.4% | −11.1% | +32.0% |
| 2014 | +10.6% | −2.5% | −53.2% |
The falls along the way
The deepest drop after US inflation for each, inside the Oct 2013 to Oct 2026 window.
Bitcoin’s worst real fall in the window was 77.8% from its Nov 2013 high to Aug 2015, back above it after 3 years 3 months. It has had 4 falls of more than half after inflation since Oct 2013. The S&P 500’s worst was 29.3% from its Dec 2021 high to Sep 2022, and gold’s 26.3% from its Aug 2020 high to Oct 2022.
For a UK holder counting in pounds after UK inflation the order is Bitcoin +34,180%, the S&P 500 +273% and gold +167%. The gap between the dollar and pound figures is the exchange rate and the difference between US and UK inflation over the same months.
| Asset | High | Low | Fall after inflation | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Dec 2021 | Sep 2022 | −29.3% | 2 years 6 months |
| Gold | Aug 2020 | Oct 2022 | −26.3% | 3 years 11 months |
| Bitcoin | Nov 2013 | Aug 2015 | −77.8% | 3 years 3 months |
Gaps and assumptions
What the figures leave out, so they can be read for what they are.
- Bitcoin’s history here starts in October 2013, from Kraken. Earlier monthly prices exist, but no free source we could check covers them, so the comparison starts there and the S&P 500’s and gold’s longer records are left out.
- The S&P 500 figures are price returns. Dividends are not included, which understates what a holder who reinvested them received.
- Gold prices are World Bank monthly averages, not month-end closes, and the latest month comes from the futures price. Bitcoin and the S&P 500 use month-end closes.
- Monthly closes hide intramonth highs and lows. Bitcoin’s intraday peaks and troughs were more extreme than the falls shown here.
- The US did not publish CPI for October 2025, so any real-dollar window that starts or ends in that month has no figure. The past-year real-dollar cells show a dash for that reason.
Stocks vs gold vs Bitcoin: questions
Worked out from the same monthly data as the tables. Educational information, not financial advice.
Have stocks, gold or Bitcoin done best after inflation since 2013?
Measured from the October 2013 close to October 2026 in today’s dollars: Bitcoin +28,424% (54.5% a year), the S&P 500 +210% (9.1% a year) and gold +122% (6.3% a year). In pounds after UK inflation: Bitcoin +34,180%, the S&P 500 +273% and gold +167%. Bitcoin’s lead comes with far deeper falls, and the order over shorter windows is different, so the period you pick matters. The S&P 500 figures are price returns: dividends are not included.
Which of them has beaten money printing?
Against the growth of the US M2 money supply since Oct 2013: Bitcoin +19,160%, the S&P 500 +109% and gold +50.0%. A positive figure means the asset grew faster than the number of dollars in circulation; a negative one means it rose more slowly, even if its price went up.
How far did each fall at its worst in real terms?
Inside the comparison window, Bitcoin fell 77.8% from its Nov 2013 high to Aug 2015, back above it after 3 years 3 months. The S&P 500 fell 29.3% from its Dec 2021 high to Sep 2022, back above it after 2 years 6 months. Gold fell 26.3% from its Aug 2020 high to Oct 2022, back above it after 3 years 11 months. These use month-end prices after US inflation.
Do stocks, gold and Bitcoin move together?
Not much, on this data. The correlation of monthly real returns over 154 months was 0.07 for the S&P 500 and gold, 0.20 for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and −0.08 for Bitcoin and gold. Correlation runs from −1 to 1 and changes over time, so a past figure says nothing certain about the next month.
Why does the comparison start in 2013?
It starts at the first month all three have data, which is Bitcoin’s first month in our history, October 2013. Gold goes back to 1960 and the S&P 500 to 1985 here, and their own pages show those longer records.
Important information
Don't invest unless you're prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.
Cryptoassets are largely unregulated in the UK, so you are unlikely to have access to the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme if something goes wrong. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.