Comparisons
Compare real returns: stocks, gold, Bitcoin, houses and cash
The questions people ask most about where money has held its value, answered side by side with the same monthly data: shares against gold and Bitcoin, the US against the UK, property against gold, and cash against all of them.
Key takeaways
- 10 years after US inflation: Bitcoin +8,779%, UK cash (Bank Rate) −10.0%
- Lost buying power: US cash (3-month T-bills) and UK cash (Bank Rate)
- 4 of the 8 trailed the US money supply
- Matched months only, so every window is like for like
Side-by-side comparisons
- Stocks, gold, crypto 10 yrs real $: S&P 500 +165%, Gold +139% Stocks vs gold vs Bitcoin The S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin from October 2013, year by year and through every fall.
- US vs UK shares 10 yrs real $: S&P 500 +165%, FTSE 100 +19.5% S&P 500 vs FTSE 100 US and UK shares since 1985, decade by decade, in dollars and pounds after inflation.
- Gold, property 10 yrs real $: Gold +139%, UK houses +0.6% Gold vs house prices Gold against UK and US house prices since 1991, and a UK house priced in ounces of gold.
- Cash, shares, gold 10 yrs real $: UK cash −10.0%, S&P 500 +165% Cash vs stocks vs gold Cash at Bank Rate and T-bill rates against shares and gold since 1985, with every 10-year window.
- Crypto, gold 10 yrs real $: Bitcoin +8,779%, Gold +139% Bitcoin vs gold Bitcoin priced in ounces of gold since 2013, with every real fall of more than half.
The 10-year scoreboard
Every series used in the comparisons, ranked by return after US inflation over the 10 years to its latest month.
| Series | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC · from Oct 2013 | +12,204% 61.8% a year | +11,254% 60.5% a year | +8,779% 56.6% a year | +7,902% 55.0% a year | +6,818% 52.8% a year |
| S&P 500 SPX · from Jan 1985 | +267% 13.9% a year | +239% 13.0% a year | +165% 10.2% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +107% 7.5% a year |
| Gold XAU · from Jan 1960 | +231% 12.7% a year | +206% 11.8% a year | +139% 9.1% a year | +115% 8.0% a year | +86.2% 6.4% a year |
| US house prices FHFA HPI · from Jan 1991 | +94.1% 6.9% a year | +91.2% 6.7% a year | +39.9% 3.4% a year | +34.6% 3.0% a year | +7.9% 0.8% a year |
| FTSE 100 UKX · from Jan 1985 | +65.6% 5.2% a year | +52.8% 4.3% a year | +19.5% 1.8% a year | +7.7% 0.7% a year | −6.9% −0.7% a year |
| UK house prices UK HPI · from Apr 1968 | +39.6% 3.4% a year | +37.6% 3.2% a year | +0.6% 0.1% a year | −3.2% −0.3% a year | −22.4% −2.5% a year |
| US cash (3-month T-bills) T-bill · from Jan 1934 | +27.5% 2.5% a year | +25.1% 2.3% a year | −8.1% −0.8% a year | −11.9% −1.3% a year | −28.7% −3.3% a year |
| UK cash (Bank Rate) Bank Rate · from Jan 1975 | +24.9% 2.2% a year | +22.5% 2.1% a year | −10.0% −1.0% a year | −13.7% −1.5% a year | −30.2% −3.5% a year |
Over the 10 years to each series’ latest month, the order after US inflation runs from Bitcoin (+8,779%) down to UK cash (Bank Rate) (−10.0%). US cash (3-month T-bills) and UK cash (Bank Rate) lost buying power over the decade.
In pounds after UK inflation the order is Bitcoin, S&P 500, Gold, US house prices, FTSE 100, UK house prices, US cash (3-month T-bills), UK cash (Bank Rate). Against the growth of the US M2 money supply, 4 of the 8 fell behind: FTSE 100, UK house prices, UK cash (Bank Rate), US cash (3-month T-bills).
We would not read too much into one 10-year window, because the month it starts in can flatter or punish any asset. Bitcoin’s figures, for instance, can only start in October 2013, since that is as far back as we found monthly prices we could verify from a source that needs no key. Each comparison page shows every standard window, the deepest falls along the way and the gaps in the data, so the result can be read in context.
Comparison questions
Educational information, not financial advice.
What has been the best store of value over the past 10 years?
Of the series compared here, Bitcoin had the highest return after US inflation over 10 years (+8,779%) and UK cash (Bank Rate) the lowest (−10.0%). We would hesitate to call that the best store of value, though, because most people want a store of value to hold its worth steadily, and Bitcoin’s lead came with by far the deepest falls of the decade. A different window gives a different order, and past returns are not a guide to future ones.
Why compare in both dollars and pounds?
A UK saver and a US saver holding the same asset get different results, because exchange rates move and the two countries’ inflation differs. Every table shows both, plus a lens against the US money supply, so neither reader has to convert.
How are the comparisons kept fair?
The main thing we do is use only the months that every series in a comparison has, so if one of them starts later or has a hole, the others are cut to match and the windows line up exactly. We cannot make the series identical, though, and each page lists the differences that are left: gold is a monthly average where the rest are month-end prices, the share indices leave out dividends and the house price indices leave out rent.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.