ETF · Bitcoin fund
IBIT real return vs inflation and money printing
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The largest US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, run by BlackRock. It holds Bitcoin directly.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- +8.0%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 37.9%
IBIT real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 2024.
+76.4%IBIT after US inflation since Jan 202422.9% a year
Up 91.6% in dollars since Jan 2024. After US inflation, up 76.4%. Against money printing, up 71.0%.
In pounds, up 84.3%, or up 68.8% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +91.6%26.7% a year
- £ nominal
- +84.3%24.9% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +76.4%22.9% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +68.8%21.0% a year
- vs US M2
- +71.0%21.5% a year
- Measured from
- Jan 2024to Oct 2026, 2 years 9 months
- IBIT, Real $ (US CPI)$46.55
- $ nominal$46.55
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | −25.3% | −25.8% | –a (see note a) | −27.8% | −28.8% |
| Since Jan 2024 first month in our data | +91.6% 26.7% a year | +84.3% 24.9% a year | +76.4% 22.9% a year | +68.8% 21.0% a year | +71.0% 21.5% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Nasdaq, Jan 2024 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for IBIT starts in Jan 2024, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) price history, past year
Daily closes from Nasdaq. Last refreshed .
Where IBIT stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 28.2%
- Above the low
- 41.9%
IBIT sits in the middle part of its range, 41.9% above the $33.29 low from 30 Jun 2026 and 28.2% below the $65.81 high from 13 Oct 2025. About 65% of the year's daily closes were lower than today's price.
Moving averages
- 50-day$43.51 +8.6%
- 200-day$41.85 +12.9%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
IBIT is 8.6% above its 50-day average and 12.9% above its 200-day average, so on both the shorter and the longer view the trend we measure is still pointing up. The 50-day line last crossed above the 200-day on 2 Oct 2026, the pattern traders call a golden cross.
Trend score
- Trend100
- Momentum63
- RSI score93
- Drawdown44
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 277 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
IBIT performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | IBIT | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -2.6% | -0.1% | −2.5 pts |
| 1 month | +8.0% | +1.9% | +6.1 pts |
| 3 months | +28.4% | +3.1% | +25.2 pts |
| Year to date | -4.8% | +14.2% | −19.0 pts |
| 1 year | -28.2% | +17.4% | −45.6 pts |
IBIT is down 28.2% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 45.6 percentage points.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 46%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 113
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 6 Feb 2026 (+9.9%) and the sharpest fall on 5 Feb 2026 (−13.2%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 46% closed higher than the day before and 113 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is IBIT overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 11
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 15
IBIT's RSI of 57.0 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 22 Sept 2026 and last fell below 30 on 10 Jun 2026.
Volatility against other funds and indices
1st most volatile of 6- Typical daily move
- 2.4%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
IBIT's 30-day volatility is 37.9%, which works out at a move of roughly 2.4% on an ordinary day. That makes it the most volatile of the 6 funds and indices we track, well above the group median of 14.6%. We use the same 30-day window for every asset so the ranking is like for like, though it shifts as big days drop out of the window.
IBIT compared with similar assets
| Asset | Price | Today | 1 month | 1 year | RSI | Trend score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBITBitcoin ETF (IBIT) | $47.25 | +0.25% | +8.0% | -28.2% | 57 | 77 Uptrend |
| BTCBitcoin | $83,204 | +1.54% | +8.3% | -27.8% | 52 | 78 Uptrend |
| MSTRStrategy (MicroStrategy) | $153.22 | +0.68% | +17.0% | -51.4% | 54 | 59 Sideways |
| COINCoinbase | $181.94 | +0.08% | +3.8% | -49.0% | 50 | 37 Sideways |
Over the past year Bitcoin has held up best in this group (−27.8%) and Strategy has been the weakest (−51.4%). IBIT comes 2nd of 4, 0.4 percentage points behind Bitcoin.
About Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)
IBIT began trading in January 2024, when US regulators first approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. It gives investors Bitcoin price exposure through an ordinary US brokerage account, without them holding coins themselves.
- Ticker
- IBIT
- Type
- ETF
- Sector
- Bitcoin fund
- Priced in
- USD
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IBIT: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has IBIT beaten inflation since Jan 2024?
Yes. From the January 2024 close to October 2026, IBIT went up 91.6% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 8.6% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 76.4%, or 22.9% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 84.3%, which comes to up 68.8% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has IBIT done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 12.0% since Jan 2024. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, IBIT is up 71.0%.
What is the IBIT price today?
The last price we have for IBIT is $47.25, up 0.3% on the day, as of 23:55 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Nasdaq and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the fund has moved +8.0% and over the last year −28.2%.
What does IBIT invest in?
The largest US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, run by BlackRock. It holds Bitcoin directly. IBIT began trading in January 2024, when US regulators first approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. It gives investors Bitcoin price exposure through an ordinary US brokerage account, without them holding coins themselves.
How has IBIT performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months IBIT is down 28.2%, and since the start of the year it is down 4.8%. We put it next to the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up IBIT, and it moved +17.4% over the same 12 months, a gap of 45.6 points in the S&P 500's favour. The figures are price changes only, so any dividends or interest the fund paid out come on top.
Is IBIT above its 200-day moving average?
It is, and comfortably. IBIT's last price of $47.25 is 12.9% above its 200-day average of $41.85, and the 50-day average of $43.51 is above the 200-day as well, which has been the case since 2 Oct 2026, when the two lines last crossed. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a fund has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is IBIT compared with other funds?
Over the past 30 days IBIT's annualised volatility has been 37.9%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 2.4% move on an ordinary day. It is the most volatile of the 6 funds and indices we track and the median for the group is 14.6%, so at the moment it is one of the jumpier ones. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +9.9% on 6 Feb 2026 and −13.2% on 5 Feb 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
Bitcoin ETF (IBIT): what the numbers say
Claude Haiku ·IBIT stands at $47.09 today, up 0.48% in the session while US markets are open. The fund sits 28.5% below its 52-week closing high of $65.81, set on 13 October 2025, and 41.4% above its closing low of $33.29, recorded on 30 June 2026. The price is above both its 50-day average of $43.51 and its 200-day average of $41.85, though the fund has still fallen 28.45% over the past year.
Read the full summary Show less
The trend score is 77, which the page labels an Uptrend, with the trend component at 100 and momentum at 62. Over the past 30 days the price has risen 7.57%, and 30-day volatility runs at 37.9% annualised. Bitcoin has gained 0.93% in the past 24 hours. Strategy fell 0.49% today and Coinbase rose 0.58%.
Written by AI from this site's live data and checked figure by figure before publishing. Educational only, not financial advice.