ETF · Government bond fund
TLT real return vs inflation and money printing
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. An exchange-traded fund holding US government bonds with more than 20 years to maturity. It falls when long-term interest rates rise.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- -3.1%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 9.7%
TLT real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jul 2002.
−44.1%TLT after US inflation since 2010−3.4% a year
Down 13.2% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, down 44.1%. Against money printing, down 68.4%.
In pounds, up 6.0%, or down 35.1% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- −13.2%−0.8% a year
- £ nominal
- +6.0%0.3% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- −44.1%−3.4% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- −35.1%−2.5% a year
- vs US M2
- −68.4%−6.6% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- TLT, Real $ (US CPI)$77.98
- $ nominal$77.98
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | −13.6% | −14.2% | –a (see note a) | −16.5% | −17.7% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | −47.2% −12.0% a year | −45.4% −11.4% a year | −56.4% −15.3% a year | −56.8% −15.5% a year | −52.1% −13.7% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | −42.4% −7.8% a year | −42.3% −7.7% a year | −55.8% −11.3% a year | −56.4% −11.4% a year | −62.1% −13.3% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | −40.6% −5.1% a year | −45.2% −5.8% a year | −57.1% −8.1% a year | −61.4% −9.1% a year | −66.6% −10.4% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | −13.2% −0.8% a year | +6.0% 0.3% a year | −44.1% −3.4% a year | −35.1% −2.5% a year | −68.4% −6.6% a year |
| Since Jul 2002 first month in our data | −5.5% −0.2% a year | +11.6% 0.5% a year | −49.2% −2.8% a year | −42.2% −2.2% a year | −77.3% −5.9% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Jul 2002 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for TLT starts in Jul 2002, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
Long Treasury ETF price history, past year
Daily closes from Nasdaq. Last refreshed .
Where TLT stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 14.9%
- Above the low
- 1.6%
TLT is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range, 14.9% below the $92.06 high it reached on 22 Oct 2025, and only 4% of the past year's closes were lower than where it trades now.
Moving averages
- 50-day$80.92 -3.1%
- 200-day$85.07 -7.9%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
TLT is 3.1% below its 50-day average and 7.9% below its 200-day average, which puts the trend down on both the short and the long view. The 50-day line has stayed below the 200-day on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data lets us check.
Trend score
- Trend0
- Momentum22
- RSI score50
- Drawdown70
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 277 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
TLT performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | TLT | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | +1.4% | -0.1% | +1.5 pts |
| 1 month | -3.1% | +1.9% | −4.9 pts |
| 3 months | -7.0% | +3.1% | −10.1 pts |
| Year to date | -10.1% | +14.2% | −24.2 pts |
| 1 year | -13.5% | +17.4% | −30.9 pts |
TLT is down 13.5% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has trailed that comparison by 30.9 percentage points. Dividends are not included, so the total return for holders would be a little higher.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 46%
- Moves of 2% or more
- 0
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 19 Aug 2026 (+1.7%) and the sharpest fall on 20 Mar 2026 (−1.9%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 46% closed higher than the day before and 0 moved by 2% or more in one direction or the other.
Is TLT overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Soft- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 1
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 9
At 40.0, TLT's RSI is below the halfway mark but still above 30, so sellers have had a little more of the recent action than buyers without it turning into the kind of slide we'd call oversold. It has been at 30 or lower on 9 sessions in the past year, the latest on 7 Oct 2026.
Volatility against other funds and indices
1st calmest of 6- Typical daily move
- 0.6%
- Calmest in group
- TLT 9.7%
TLT's 30-day volatility is 9.7%, which works out at a move of roughly 0.6% on an ordinary day. That makes it the calmest of the 6 funds and indices we track, well below the group median of 14.6%. We use the same 30-day window for every asset so the ranking is like for like, though it shifts as big days drop out of the window.
TLT compared with similar assets
| Asset | Price | Today | 1 month | 1 year | RSI | Trend score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLTLong Treasury ETF | $78.38 | +0.01% | -3.1% | -13.5% | 40 | 26 Downtrend |
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | $778.46 | +0.05% | +1.9% | +17.4% | 60 | 89 Uptrend |
| GLDGold ETF | $381.54 | -0.03% | -4.3% | +0.9% | 43 | 30 Downtrend |
| BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway | $520.59 | -0.02% | +2.0% | +5.8% | 67 | 82 Uptrend |
Over the past year S&P 500 ETF has done best in this group (+17.4%) and Long Treasury ETF has been the weakest (−13.5%). TLT comes 4th of 4, 30.9 percentage points behind S&P 500 ETF.
About Long Treasury ETF
TLT launched in 2002. Because its bonds have such long maturities, a one-point rise in long-term yields can take well over 10% off the price, which makes it far jumpier than a typical bond fund.
- Ticker
- TLT
- Type
- ETF
- Sector
- Government bond fund
- Priced in
- USD
Third-party market headlines
Headlines from outside publishers, linked to their sites. We don't write or endorse them.
- TECHNOLOGY Is it OK for jobseekers or employers to use AI?
- TECHNOLOGY Chip stocks suffer worst stretch in 16 months as AI fatigue grips the market
- STOCKS The SpaceX threat could loom over AT&T’s stock for a prolonged stretch, analyst cautions
- STOCKS Six Flags’ stock slumps near 17-year low after fatal incident
- STOCKS AST SpaceMobile’s stock is feeling the heat from SpaceX’s wireless plans
- TECHNOLOGY Was Broadcom CEO bullish or bearish on AI? ‘Gamblers’ comment creates storm.
TLT: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has TLT beaten inflation since 2010?
No. Between the December 2009 close and October 2026, TLT went down 13.2% in dollars while US consumer prices rose 55.1%, so in today's money it is down 44.1%. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 6.0%, which comes to down 35.1% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has TLT done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, TLT is down 68.4%. In other words the price rose more slowly than the amount of money in circulation.
What is TLT's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, TLT returned 40.6% in dollars (−5.1% a year). After US inflation that is down 57.1%, −8.1% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is down 61.4%.
What is the TLT price today?
The last price we have for TLT is $78.38, up 0.0% on the day, as of 23:54 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Nasdaq and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the fund has moved −3.1% and over the last year −13.5%.
What does TLT invest in?
An exchange-traded fund holding US government bonds with more than 20 years to maturity. It falls when long-term interest rates rise. TLT launched in 2002. Because its bonds have such long maturities, a one-point rise in long-term yields can take well over 10% off the price, which makes it far jumpier than a typical bond fund.
How has TLT performed over the past year?
Over the past 12 months TLT is down 13.5%, and since the start of the year it is down 10.1%. We put it next to the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) because that is the obvious alternative for most people weighing up TLT, and it moved +17.4% over the same 12 months, a gap of 30.9 points in the S&P 500's favour. The figures are price changes only, so any dividends or interest the fund paid out come on top.
Is TLT above its 200-day moving average?
No, it's 7.9% under it at the moment. TLT's last price of $78.38 compares with a 200-day average of $85.07, and the 50-day average of $80.92 is below the 200-day too, which has been true on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data goes. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a fund has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is TLT compared with other funds?
Over the past 30 days TLT's annualised volatility has been 9.7%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 0.6% move on an ordinary day. It is the calmest of the 6 funds and indices we track and the median for the group is 14.6%, so at the moment it is calmer than most of them. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +1.7% on 19 Aug 2026 and −1.9% on 20 Mar 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
Long Treasury ETF: what the numbers say
Claude Haiku ·The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF closed at $78.41 today, up 0.46% while the US market is open. The fund sits 1.7% above its 52-week closing low of $77.11, set on 5 October 2026, and 14.8% below its closing high of $92.06 from 22 October 2025. It trades under both its 50-day average of $80.9 and its 200-day average of $85.1, and it has fallen 13.4% over the past year.
Read the full summary Show less
The trend score of 26 places the fund in a Downtrend, with its trend component at zero and momentum at 22. Over the past 30 days the price has slipped 3.1%, and the 14-day RSI of 40.3 sits in weaker territory. Annualised volatility over the same 30 days is 9.7%. Across today's session, the fund's gain sat between a 0.14% fall in the Gold ETF and a 0.75% rise in Berkshire Hathaway, while the S&P 500 ETF edged up 0.02%.
Written by AI from this site's live data and checked figure by figure before publishing. Educational only, not financial advice.