Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Topic
Investment Strategy Against Money Printing
When we wrote Part VI in June 2026, we wanted to turn five articles of history into something you could use, so we sorted the main assets by risk and by how they had done against the money supply.
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Cash is at the bottom, losing purchasing power by design.
Gold and Berkshire Hathaway are next, as assets that should roughly hold their value, then the Nasdaq as the broad compounder, Nvidia as the concentrated bet and Bitcoin at the far end, with the highest volatility and the strongest record so far.
- 6.56% Average yearly M2 growth The hurdle rate an investment had to beat to keep its share of the money pool.
- 1.5x to 6.2x Base-case real returns to 2035 Gold at the low end, Bitcoin at the top, after M2.
- ~$37tn M2 base case for 2035 A scenario at 5.5% a year from $22.8 trillion in June 2026.
Articles on Investment Strategy
1 article from our research on this topic.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for investment strategy
- The 6.56% rule 6.56% a year
- The average annual growth of US M2 over the last century. Assets compounding faster gained ground, slower ones lost it. More about The 6.56% rule
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
- CAGR
- Compound annual growth rate: the steady yearly rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value over the period.
FAQ
Questions about investment strategy
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
What does the Part VI playbook actually recommend?
A risk spectrum rather than a single answer, because the right place on it depends on the person. Cash and savings sit at the bottom as the baseline we expect to lose value.
Gold and Berkshire Hathaway come next as preservers, likely to hold purchasing power with limited upside, then the Nasdaq as the modern compounder, Nvidia and mega-cap tech as the high-conviction bet with single-company risk, and Bitcoin at the far end as the asymmetric hedge. We built it from the same St. Louis Fed money supply data as the rest of the series, but an article can’t know your income, timescale or tolerance for losses.
Why does the strategy focus on beating M2?
Because across our 100 years of data, assets that grew more slowly than M2 lost real value even while their prices rose, and the base case for 2035 has M2 growing about 1.6x, so anything that grows less than that leaves its owner poorer.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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