Stock · Semiconductors
NVIDIA real return vs inflation and money printing NVDA
NVIDIA Corp. Designer of the graphics processors and data-centre chips that power most AI model training.
Key numbers
- 1-month change
- +5.0%
- Volatility (30-day, annualised)
- 26.2%
NVIDIA real return after inflation and money printing
In dollars and pounds, before and after inflation, since Jan 1999.
+31,551%NVIDIA after US inflation since 201040.8% a year
Up 48,996% in dollars since 2010. After US inflation, up 31,551%. Against money printing, up 17,800%.
In pounds, up 59,877%, or up 36,655% after UK inflation.
- $ nominal
- +48,996%44.5% a year
- £ nominal
- +59,877%46.2% a year
- Real $ (US CPI)
- +31,551%40.8% a year
- Real £ (UK CPI)
- +36,655%42.0% a year
- vs US M2
- +17,800%36.1% a year
- Measured from
- Dec 2009to Oct 2026, 16 years 10 months
- NVIDIA, Real $ (US CPI)$229.30
- $ nominal$229.30
- Oct 2026, latest
Loading the chart. Every figure is also in the table below.
| Period | $ nominal | £ nominal | Real $ (US CPI) | Real £ (UK CPI) | vs US M2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past year from Oct 2025 | +13.2% | +12.4% | –a (see note a) | +9.5% | +7.9% |
| 5 years from Oct 2021 | +797% 55.1% a year | +827% 56.1% a year | +640% 49.2% a year | +634% 49.0% a year | +713% 52.1% a year |
| Since 2020 from Dec 2019 | +3,798% 70.9% a year | +3,808% 71.0% a year | +2,890% 64.4% a year | +2,853% 64.1% a year | +2,463% 60.8% a year |
| 10 years from Oct 2016 | +12,788% 62.6% a year | +11,793% 61.3% a year | +9,200% 57.3% a year | +8,281% 55.7% a year | +7,146% 53.5% a year |
| Since 2010 from Dec 2009 | +48,996% 44.5% a year | +59,877% 46.2% a year | +31,551% 40.8% a year | +36,655% 42.0% a year | +17,800% 36.1% a year |
| Since 2000 from Dec 1999 | +234,371% 33.5% a year | +286,035% 34.5% a year | +117,703% 30.2% a year | +144,562% 31.2% a year | +46,498% 25.7% a year |
| Since Jan 1999 first month in our data | +579,139% 36.6% a year | +720,206% 37.7% a year | +284,003% 33.2% a year | +358,047% 34.3% a year | +109,126% 28.7% a year |
- a US CPI was not published for Oct 2025.
How these figures are worked out
Sources, inflation measures and what is left out
- Month-end closes from Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Jan 1999 to Oct 2026. Oct 2026 is still in progress, so its figure is the latest close rather than a month-end. Our history for NVIDIA starts in Jan 1999, so longer windows are left out.
- Real figures divide by US CPI (BLS, via FRED) or UK CPI (ONS, joined to the ONS long-run RPI before Jan 1988) and are stated in Oct 2026 money. The M2 lens divides by the US M2 money supply (Federal Reserve, via FRED). Pounds convert at each month's GBP/USD rate.
- US CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- UK CPI is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- US M2 is published with a lag: Oct 2026 uses the Aug 2026 figure.
- Price returns only: dividends are not included, so the total return to a holder who reinvested them was higher.
- A return of 12 months or more also shows its yearly rate. Gaps in a source are left as gaps and never filled in.
NVIDIA price history, past year
Daily closes from Nasdaq. Last refreshed .
Where NVIDIA stands today
52-week range
- Below the high
- 4.2%
- Above the low
- 38.8%
At $229.24, NVIDIA is higher than 96% of its daily closes over the past year and only 4.2% short of the $239.24 high it set on 6 Oct 2026.
Moving averages
- 50-day$223.04 +2.8%
- 200-day$202.54 +13.2%
Price compared with each average. Bars to the right mean the price is above it.
NVIDIA is 2.8% above its 50-day average and 13.2% above its 200-day average, so on both the shorter and the longer view the trend we measure is still pointing up. The 50-day line has stayed above the 200-day on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data lets us check.
Trend score
- Trend100
- Momentum79
- RSI score82
- Drawdown92
- Uptrend
- 65 or more
- Sideways
- 36 to 64
- Downtrend
- 35 or less
Rules-based, from 277 daily prices. It describes the trend so far and does not predict the next move. How it works.
NVIDIA performance and biggest moves
Returns over time
| Period | NVDA | SPY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -4.2% | -0.1% | −4.1 pts |
| 1 month | +5.0% | +1.9% | +3.2 pts |
| 3 months | +7.9% | +3.1% | +4.7 pts |
| Year to date | +22.9% | +14.2% | +8.8 pts |
| 1 year | +21.7% | +17.4% | +4.3 pts |
NVIDIA is up 21.7% over the past year on price alone, against +17.4% for the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund), so it has beaten that comparison by 4.3 percentage points. Dividends are not included, so the total return for holders would be a little higher.
Best and worst days in the past year
- Days that closed higher
- 51%
- Moves of 3% or more
- 45
The biggest one-day rise since 13 Oct 2025 came on 27 Aug 2026 (+8.7%) and the sharpest fall on 5 Jun 2026 (−6.2%). Of the 251 trading days in that period, 51% closed higher than the day before and 45 moved by 3% or more in one direction or the other.
Is NVIDIA overbought, and how volatile is it?
RSI (14-day)
Neutral- Sessions at 70+ (past year)
- 10
- Sessions at 30 or lower
- 0
NVIDIA's RSI of 52.8 is near the middle of the scale, which tells us the up and down days of the last three weeks have more or less cancelled each other out. For context, it last went above 70 on 14 May 2026.
Volatility against other US shares
11th most volatile of 27- Typical daily move
- 1.7%
- Calmest in group
- BRK.B 10.8%
NVIDIA's 30-day volatility is 26.2%, which works out at a move of roughly 1.7% on an ordinary day. That makes it the 11th most volatile of the 27 US shares we track, above the group median of 23.3%. One very large day, such as an earnings release or a sudden sell-off, can lift a 30-day figure for weeks, so we would read the ranking as this month's picture.
NVIDIA compared with similar assets
| Asset | Price | Today | 1 month | 1 year | RSI | Trend score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDANVIDIA | $229.24 | +0.32% | +5.0% | +21.7% | 53 | 89 Uptrend |
| AMDAMD | $609.60 | +0.67% | +18.1% | +181.7% | 57 | 93 Uptrend |
| AVGOBroadcom | $358.02 | +0.20% | -1.1% | +0.4% | 48 | 49 Sideways |
| MSFTMicrosoft | $543.00 | -0.08% | +9.6% | +5.6% | 71 | 89 Uptrend |
Over the past year AMD has done best in this group (+181.7%) and Broadcom has been the weakest (+0.4%). NVIDIA comes 2nd of 4, 159.9 percentage points behind AMD.
About NVIDIA
NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and listed in 1999. Data-centre chips sold to cloud companies and AI labs now make up most of its revenue, so the shares react strongly to spending plans at the biggest tech firms.
- Ticker
- NVDA
- Type
- Stock
- Sector
- Semiconductors
- Priced in
- USD
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NVIDIA: questions people ask
Answers are built from the same live figures shown above, so they change as the price does. Last checked 14 Oct 2026.
Has NVIDIA beaten inflation since 2010?
Yes. From the December 2009 close to October 2026, NVIDIA went up 48,996% in dollars. US consumer prices rose 55.1% over the same months, which leaves a real gain of 31,551%, or 40.8% a year after inflation. A UK holder counting in pounds saw up 59,877%, which comes to up 36,655% once UK CPI is taken out. These are price returns: dividends are not included, so a holder who reinvested them did better.
How has NVIDIA done against money printing?
The US M2 money supply grew 174% since 2010. M2 counts the cash, current accounts and savings deposits held in the US, so it measures how much new money was created rather than how much shop prices rose. Against it, NVIDIA is up 17,800%.
What is NVIDIA's real return over 10 years?
Over the 10 years to October 2026, NVIDIA returned 12,788% in dollars (62.6% a year). After US inflation that is up 9,200%, 57.3% a year. In pounds after UK inflation it is up 8,281%.
What is the NVIDIA share price today?
The last price we have for NVIDIA is $229.24, up 0.3% on the day, as of 23:55 BST on 13 Oct 2026. We get US prices from Nasdaq and during trading hours they can be up to 15 minutes behind, so if you are about to trade you'll want the live quote from your broker rather than ours. Over the last month the shares have moved +5.0% and over the last year +21.7%.
Is NVIDIA stock overbought right now?
No, or at least not on the 14-day RSI, which reads 52.8 at the moment. We'd only start calling NVIDIA overbought above 70 and it hasn't been there since 14 May 2026. RSI looks back over 14 sessions and asks how much of the movement was up and how much was down, so a reading in the 50s or 60s mostly tells us the past few weeks have been fairly even. NVIDIA spent 10 sessions at 70 or above in the past year, which is one reason we don't treat a high reading as a cue to sell: in a strong run it can stay there for weeks.
How far is NVIDIA from its 52-week high?
Not far, about 4.2%. The highest close in the past year was $239.24 on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest was $165.17 on 30 Mar 2026, which puts today's price 87% of the way up that range. We work this out from daily closing prices rather than the intraday highs and lows an exchange reports, so our high can be a little lower than the one you'll see quoted elsewhere.
Is NVIDIA above its 200-day moving average?
It is, and comfortably. NVIDIA's last price of $229.24 is 13.2% above its 200-day average of $202.54, and the 50-day average of $223.04 is above the 200-day as well, which has been true on every day since 24 Jun 2026, as far back as our data goes. We show the 200-day line because it averages about ten months of closing prices, so a single bad week hardly moves it, and when we look at a chart it's the quickest way to see whether a share has been rising or falling over the longer run, even if it can't tell us where the price goes from here.
How volatile is NVIDIA stock?
Over the past 30 days NVIDIA's annualised volatility has been 26.2%. If that number feels abstract, it works out at roughly a 1.7% move on an ordinary day. It is the 11th most volatile of the 27 US shares we track and the median for the group is 23.3%, so at the moment it is about as jumpy as a typical member of the group. The biggest single-day swings of the past year were +8.7% on 27 Aug 2026 and −6.2% on 5 Jun 2026.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
NVIDIA: what the numbers say
Claude Haiku ·NVIDIA's shares rose 0.45% today, with the US market open, to $227.34. That leaves the stock 5% below its 52-week closing high of $239.24, set on 6 October, and 37.6% above its closing low of $165.17 on 30 March. The price sits comfortably above both its 50-day average of $223.00 and its 200-day average of $202.53.
Read the full summary Show less
The trend score stands at 87 and is labelled Uptrend, with momentum at 76 and the trend component at 100. The 14-day RSI sits at 50.6, and volatility over the past 30 days runs at 26% annualised. Shares are up 4.15% over that 30-day stretch. According to CNBC, Nvidia featured in a roundup of Tuesday's biggest analyst calls.
Written by AI from this site's live data and checked figure by figure before publishing. Educational only, not financial advice.