Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Topic
Nvidia Stock Forecast: A Base-Case Scenario for 2030 and 2035
Nvidia stock forecast scenarios from our June 2026 research: a modelled $580 by 2030 from $207, the assumptions behind it and the risks, against M2 growth.
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The Nvidia scenario in Part VI, from our June 2026 research, is a base-case model, so it is only as good as the assumptions we fed into it, which were a share price of $207 in 2026, projected FY2027 revenue of about $367 billion, net margins above 60% and money supply growth of 5.5% a year. On those inputs it arrives at around $580 in 2030 and $1,050 in 2035.
That is a 5.1x nominal rise and about 3.1x after allowing for the 1.6x growth we expect in M2. We also expect Nvidia’s growth rate to slow, because moving revenue from $230 billion to $367 billion needs huge capital spending from the hyperscalers, and we think 100x returns from a company this large are most likely behind it.
- $580 NVIDIA 2030 base case A modelled scenario from $207 in June 2026, not a price target.
- ~$367bn NVIDIA projected FY2027 revenue With net margins above 60%, as cited in Part VI.
- 836x NVIDIA M2-adjusted since 1999 4,190x nominal, compounding at 36.2% a year.
Articles on Nvidia Forecast
1 article from our research on this topic.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for Nvidia forecast
- Base case
- The middle scenario in a model. In Part VI it assumes M2 grows 5.5% a year, alongside bear (4%) and bull (7%+) cases.
- P/E ratio
- Share price divided by earnings per share. Cisco traded near 200 at the 2000 peak, while Nvidia’s forward P/E in mid-2026 was in the mid-20s.
- Diminishing returns
- As an asset gets larger, the same dollar gain becomes a smaller percentage. Part VI uses it to explain Bitcoin’s falling CAGR.
- M2-adjusted value 1.0 = break-even
- An asset’s growth divided by M2 growth over the same years. Above 1.0 it gained share of the money pool, below 1.0 it lost share.
FAQ
Questions about Nvidia forecast
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
What does the Part VI scenario show for Nvidia in 2030?
The base-case scenario in our June 2026 research has Nvidia at about $580 in 2030 and $1,050 in 2035, modelled from $207 in June 2026. It assumes the money supply grows 5.5% a year and that tech valuations normalise. If either assumption is wrong, the figure moves with it, which is why we published bear and bull scenarios too and would not treat any single number as a target.
What are the main risks to the forecast?
Part VI names single-company disruption and regulatory action as the inherent risks of a high-conviction holding like Nvidia, and slowing growth as a near certainty at its size. We don’t see a dot-com style collapse in the fundamentals, given a forward P/E in the mid-20s against Cisco’s near 200 in 2000, but a lower growth rate would still pull the returns down from the 36.2% a year Nvidia has managed since 1999.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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