Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Topic
Stocks: Which Shares Beat the Money Supply
Shares were the only asset class in our 100-year scorecard that clearly beat money printing, but only when the income was reinvested.
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From 1928 the S&P 500 grew 308x on price against 473x for M2, while the same index with every dividend put back in reached 11,570x, and US small caps did better still at 64,626x.
The four articles under this topic follow that through to individual companies. Berkshire Hathaway and Walmart both returned more than 1,000x after adjusting for M2 over 55 to 60 years, and in the digital age Nvidia reached 836x in 27 years, with Apple at 489x and Microsoft at 474x. We also look hard at the companies that didn’t make it, because they are the reason picking winners is so much harder than the tables make it look.
- 11,570x S&P 500 total return since 1928 With every dividend reinvested, about 24 times what M2 did.
- 64,626x US small caps since 1928 An M2-adjusted value of about 136.5, the top of the scorecard.
- 1,027x Berkshire Hathaway, 1965 to 2025 M2-adjusted, compounding at 19.8% a year.
Articles on Stocks
4 articles from our research on this topic.
Crypto vs Stocks: Bitcoin & Tech in the Digital Era
We measure Bitcoin, Nvidia, Apple and the Nasdaq against money supply growth to settle crypto vs stocks, and to see how much faster tech built real wealth.
Warren Buffett Returns, Berkshire Hathaway Performance & IPO Winners
Warren Buffett's returns at Berkshire Hathaway came to 1,027x after money printing over 60 years. We compare them with Walmart, Nike and other IPO winners.
Historical Asset Class Returns: The 100-Year Scorecard
Historical asset class returns since 1928 for nine investments, from small caps to T-bills, and why only three of them grew faster than the money supply.
Plain-English definitions
Key terms for stocks
- Dividend reinvestment
- Using each dividend to buy more of the same holding instead of spending it, so the income compounds alongside the price.
- CAGR
- Compound annual growth rate: the steady yearly rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value over the period.
- Survivorship bias
- Judging a strategy by the winners that are still around while forgetting the companies that failed or were delisted along the way.
- IPO
- An initial public offering, the point when a company first lists its shares on a stock exchange.
FAQ
Questions about stocks
Answers drawn from the figures in our research. Educational only, not financial advice.
Which stocks beat money printing the most?
Among the companies we measured, Berkshire Hathaway (1,027x from 1965) and Walmart (1,024x from its 1970 listing) top the pre-digital list after adjusting for M2, followed by Home Depot, McDonald’s and Nike between 724x and 826x. In the tech group Nvidia leads at 836x since 1999, with Apple at 489x and Microsoft at 474x, and Amazon at 235x since 1997. What separates the two groups is time. The industrial winners needed 40 to 60 years, while Nvidia got close to the same multiple in 27.
Do I need to reinvest dividends for shares to beat inflation?
In our data, yes. The S&P 500 with dividends spent as income rose 308-fold from 1928, which is less than the 473-fold growth in M2, so the investor’s capital lost ground. With every dividend reinvested the same index reached 11,570x. Berkshire Hathaway reached the same place by a different route, because it never paid a dividend and kept all its profits compounding inside the company.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Educational information only, not financial advice. Read our disclaimer.
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