The Illusion of Wealth & How to Beat Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective
We tested 30 ideas about how to beat inflation against 100 years of US money supply data, from gold and housing to savings, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
Author
David Bryan
- Articles published 7
- Hypotheses tested 30 Across The Illusion of Wealth
- Years of data 100 US money supply and asset prices since 1926
- Hurdle rate found 6.56% Average yearly M2 growth
About the research
David Bryan writes the research on OutsmartMoney.ai. His main project so far, The Illusion of Wealth, came out as an overview and six research articles in June 2026, and it asks whether anything has really grown in value over the last century or has just been carried along by the growth of the US money supply.
To answer that he tested 30 hypotheses against 100 years of data, using sources including the St. Louis Fed's FRED database, Aswath Damodaran's historical returns at NYU Stern, Macrotrends and Yahoo Finance, and measured gold, housing, savings, the S&P 500, Berkshire Hathaway, Nvidia and Bitcoin against the same yardstick. Every article lists its references so the figures can be checked.
Articles by David Bryan
Nvidia Stock Prediction & Gold Price Forecast 2030: The Modern Playbook
Our base-case Nvidia stock prediction and gold price forecast for 2030 and 2035, alongside Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, all modelled against money supply growth.
Crypto vs Stocks: Bitcoin & Tech in the Digital Era
We measure Bitcoin, Nvidia, Apple and the Nasdaq against money supply growth to settle crypto vs stocks, and to see how much faster tech built real wealth.
Warren Buffett Returns, Berkshire Hathaway Performance & IPO Winners
Warren Buffett's returns at Berkshire Hathaway came to 1,027x after money printing over 60 years. We compare them with Walmart, Nike and other IPO winners.
Historical Asset Class Returns: The 100-Year Scorecard
Historical asset class returns since 1928 for nine investments, from small caps to T-bills, and why only three of them grew faster than the money supply.
Stocks vs Inflation: Does the Stock Market Beat Inflation? Avoid the Savings Trap
We test whether the stock market beats inflation once money printing counts, using the S&P 500's 468x rise since 1926 and savings that fell to 4.3 cents.
Gold vs Real Estate Returns & Which Asset Beat Inflation? The 100-Year Performance
Gold rose 168x and US house prices 83x after 1926, while the money supply grew 503x. We compare gold vs real estate returns to see which kept its value.